Cardiology News

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, remains viable in aerosols for hours and on surfaces for days, according to a new study.

The data indicate that the stability of the new virus is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, which caused the SARS epidemic, researchers report in an article published on the medRxivpreprint server. (The posted article has been submitted for journal publication but has not been peer reviewed.)

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has quickly outstripped the pace of the 2003 SARS epidemic. “Superspread” of the earlier disease arose from infection during medical procedures, in which a single infected individual seeded many secondary cases. In contrast, the novel coronavirus appears to be spread more through human-to-human transmission in a variety of settings.

However, it’s not yet known the extent to which asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals spread the new virus through daily routine.

To investigate how long SARS-CoV-2 remains infective in the environment, Neeltje van Doremalen, PhD, of the Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in Hamilton, Montana, and colleagues conducted simulation experiments in which they compared the viability of SARS-CoV-2 with that of SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on surfaces.

Among patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are high; as a consequence, respiratory secretion in the form of aerosols (<5 μm) or droplets (>5 mcm) is likely, the authors note.

van Doremalen and colleagues used nebulizers to generate aerosols. Samples of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 were collecting at 0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 minutes on a gelatin filter. The researchers then tested the infectivity of the viruses on Vero cells grown in culture.

They found that SARS-CoV-2 was largely stable through the full 180-minute test, with only a slight decline at 3 hours. This time course is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1; both viruses have a median half-life in aerosols of 2.7 hours (range, 1.65 hr for SARS-CoV-1, vs 7.24 hr for SARS-CoV-2).

The researchers then tested the viruses on a variety of surfaces for up to 7 days, using humidity values and temperatures designed to mimic “a variety of household and hospital situations.” The volumes of viral exposures that the team used were consistent with amounts found in the human upper and lower respiratory tracts.

For example, they applied 50 mcL of virus-containing solution to a piece of cardboard and then swabbed the surface, at different times, with an additional 1 mcL of medium. Each surface assay was replicated three times.

The novel coronavirus was most stable on plastic and stainless steel, with some virus remaining viable up to 72 hours. However, by that time the viral load had fallen by about three orders of magnitude, indicating exponential decay. This profile was remarkably similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, according to the authors.

However, the two viruses differed in staying power on copper and cardboard. No viable SARS-CoV-2 was detectable on copper after 4 hours or on cardboard after 24 hours. In contrast, SARS-CoV-1 was not viable beyond 8 hours for either copper or cardboard.

“Taken together, our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 [SARS-CoV-2] are plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days,” the authors conclude.

Andrew Pekosz, PhD, codirector of the Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance and director of the Center for Emerging Viruses and Infectious Diseases at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health, Baltimore, Maryland, applauds the real-world value of the experiments.

“The PCR [polymerase chain reaction] test used [in other studies] to detect SARS-CoV-2 just detects the virus genome. It doesn’t tell you if the virus was still infectious, or ‘viable.’ That’s why this study is interesting,” Pekosz said. “It focuses on infectious virus, which is the virus that has the potential to transmit and infect another person. What we don’t know yet is how much infectious (viable) virus is needed to initiate infection in another person.”

He suggests that further investigations evaluate other types of environmental surfaces, including lacquered wood that is made into desks and ceramic tiles found in bathrooms and kitchens.

One limitation of the study is that the data for experiments on cardboard were more variable than the data for other surfaces tested.

The investigators and Pekosz have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, remains viable in aerosols for hours and on surfaces for days, according to a new study.

The data indicate that the stability of the new virus is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, which caused the SARS epidemic, researchers report in an article published on the medRxivpreprint server. (The posted article has been submitted for journal publication but has not been peer reviewed.)

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has quickly outstripped the pace of the 2003 SARS epidemic. “Superspread” of the earlier disease arose from infection during medical procedures, in which a single infected individual seeded many secondary cases. In contrast, the novel coronavirus appears to be spread more through human-to-human transmission in a variety of settings.

However, it’s not yet known the extent to which asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals spread the new virus through daily routine.

To investigate how long SARS-CoV-2 remains infective in the environment, Neeltje van Doremalen, PhD, of the Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in Hamilton, Montana, and colleagues conducted simulation experiments in which they compared the viability of SARS-CoV-2 with that of SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on surfaces.

Among patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are high; as a consequence, respiratory secretion in the form of aerosols (<5 μm) or droplets (>5 mcm) is likely, the authors note.

van Doremalen and colleagues used nebulizers to generate aerosols. Samples of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 were collecting at 0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 minutes on a gelatin filter. The researchers then tested the infectivity of the viruses on Vero cells grown in culture.

They found that SARS-CoV-2 was largely stable through the full 180-minute test, with only a slight decline at 3 hours. This time course is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1; both viruses have a median half-life in aerosols of 2.7 hours (range, 1.65 hr for SARS-CoV-1, vs 7.24 hr for SARS-CoV-2).

The researchers then tested the viruses on a variety of surfaces for up to 7 days, using humidity values and temperatures designed to mimic “a variety of household and hospital situations.” The volumes of viral exposures that the team used were consistent with amounts found in the human upper and lower respiratory tracts.

For example, they applied 50 mcL of virus-containing solution to a piece of cardboard and then swabbed the surface, at different times, with an additional 1 mcL of medium. Each surface assay was replicated three times.

The novel coronavirus was most stable on plastic and stainless steel, with some virus remaining viable up to 72 hours. However, by that time the viral load had fallen by about three orders of magnitude, indicating exponential decay. This profile was remarkably similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, according to the authors.

However, the two viruses differed in staying power on copper and cardboard. No viable SARS-CoV-2 was detectable on copper after 4 hours or on cardboard after 24 hours. In contrast, SARS-CoV-1 was not viable beyond 8 hours for either copper or cardboard.

“Taken together, our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 [SARS-CoV-2] are plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days,” the authors conclude.

Andrew Pekosz, PhD, codirector of the Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance and director of the Center for Emerging Viruses and Infectious Diseases at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health, Baltimore, Maryland, applauds the real-world value of the experiments.

“The PCR [polymerase chain reaction] test used [in other studies] to detect SARS-CoV-2 just detects the virus genome. It doesn’t tell you if the virus was still infectious, or ‘viable.’ That’s why this study is interesting,” Pekosz said. “It focuses on infectious virus, which is the virus that has the potential to transmit and infect another person. What we don’t know yet is how much infectious (viable) virus is needed to initiate infection in another person.”

He suggests that further investigations evaluate other types of environmental surfaces, including lacquered wood that is made into desks and ceramic tiles found in bathrooms and kitchens.

One limitation of the study is that the data for experiments on cardboard were more variable than the data for other surfaces tested.

The investigators and Pekosz have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, remains viable in aerosols for hours and on surfaces for days, according to a new study.

The data indicate that the stability of the new virus is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, which caused the SARS epidemic, researchers report in an article published on the medRxivpreprint server. (The posted article has been submitted for journal publication but has not been peer reviewed.)

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has quickly outstripped the pace of the 2003 SARS epidemic. “Superspread” of the earlier disease arose from infection during medical procedures, in which a single infected individual seeded many secondary cases. In contrast, the novel coronavirus appears to be spread more through human-to-human transmission in a variety of settings.

However, it’s not yet known the extent to which asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals spread the new virus through daily routine.

To investigate how long SARS-CoV-2 remains infective in the environment, Neeltje van Doremalen, PhD, of the Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in Hamilton, Montana, and colleagues conducted simulation experiments in which they compared the viability of SARS-CoV-2 with that of SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on surfaces.

Among patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are high; as a consequence, respiratory secretion in the form of aerosols (<5 μm) or droplets (>5 mcm) is likely, the authors note.

van Doremalen and colleagues used nebulizers to generate aerosols. Samples of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 were collecting at 0, 30, 60, 120, and 180 minutes on a gelatin filter. The researchers then tested the infectivity of the viruses on Vero cells grown in culture.

They found that SARS-CoV-2 was largely stable through the full 180-minute test, with only a slight decline at 3 hours. This time course is similar to that of SARS-CoV-1; both viruses have a median half-life in aerosols of 2.7 hours (range, 1.65 hr for SARS-CoV-1, vs 7.24 hr for SARS-CoV-2).

The researchers then tested the viruses on a variety of surfaces for up to 7 days, using humidity values and temperatures designed to mimic “a variety of household and hospital situations.” The volumes of viral exposures that the team used were consistent with amounts found in the human upper and lower respiratory tracts.

For example, they applied 50 mcL of virus-containing solution to a piece of cardboard and then swabbed the surface, at different times, with an additional 1 mcL of medium. Each surface assay was replicated three times.

The novel coronavirus was most stable on plastic and stainless steel, with some virus remaining viable up to 72 hours. However, by that time the viral load had fallen by about three orders of magnitude, indicating exponential decay. This profile was remarkably similar to that of SARS-CoV-1, according to the authors.

However, the two viruses differed in staying power on copper and cardboard. No viable SARS-CoV-2 was detectable on copper after 4 hours or on cardboard after 24 hours. In contrast, SARS-CoV-1 was not viable beyond 8 hours for either copper or cardboard.

“Taken together, our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 [SARS-CoV-2] are plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days,” the authors conclude.

Andrew Pekosz, PhD, codirector of the Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance and director of the Center for Emerging Viruses and Infectious Diseases at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health, Baltimore, Maryland, applauds the real-world value of the experiments.

“The PCR [polymerase chain reaction] test used [in other studies] to detect SARS-CoV-2 just detects the virus genome. It doesn’t tell you if the virus was still infectious, or ‘viable.’ That’s why this study is interesting,” Pekosz said. “It focuses on infectious virus, which is the virus that has the potential to transmit and infect another person. What we don’t know yet is how much infectious (viable) virus is needed to initiate infection in another person.”

He suggests that further investigations evaluate other types of environmental surfaces, including lacquered wood that is made into desks and ceramic tiles found in bathrooms and kitchens.

One limitation of the study is that the data for experiments on cardboard were more variable than the data for other surfaces tested.

The investigators and Pekosz have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

LOS ANGELES – Although recent findings from circumscribed patient populations enrolled in intervention studies have shown improved survival rates in patients with a recent intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke, data from a large, observational study in the Netherlands suggested a much darker real-world picture, with a 6-month mortality of 64% identified in a total cohort of nearly 15,000 people followed prospectively starting in 1990.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

In striking contrast to the survival pattern over time of patients in the same Dutch study who had a first acute ischemic stroke, which showed a statistically significant and meaningful cut in mortality for ischemic stroke patients during the 25-year period examined, survival rates for patients during the first months following a first intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) stayed flat during 1991-2015, Reem Waziry, MD, said at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association.

“The promising treatment advances [applied to patients] in the recent ICH trials may not be reflected in community-based treatment,” suggested Dr. Waziry, a research and teaching fellow in clinical epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.

The data she reported came from the Rotterdam Study, which followed unselected, older people in the Rotterdam community with no stroke history, and during 25 years of monitoring identified 162 incident ICH strokes and 988 acute ischemic strokes. Concurrently with Dr. Waziry’s talk at the conference, the data she reported were published in Stroke. The data she reported also showed that, during the 25 years studied, mortality at 3 years following a first ICH stroke rose to 73% on average.

During her talk, Dr. Waziry also presented an unpublished comparison of the 64% 6-month mortality in the Rotterdam Study with the 3- to 6-month mortality reported in the control arms of four recent, randomized intervention trials, including the MISTIE III trial. Among the four randomized trials Dr. Waziry selected to make this post-hoc comparison, the study with the highest mortality among control patients was MISTIE III, which showed about 25% mortality after 6 months. In contrast, the 19% 6-month mortality among ischemic stroke patients in the Rotterdam Study was roughly similar to the mortality seem in the control arms of some recent studies of interventions for patients with acute ischemic stroke.

The Rotterdam Study receives no commercial funding. Dr. Waziry had no disclosures.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Waziry R et al. ISC 2020, Abstract LB14.

LOS ANGELES – Although recent findings from circumscribed patient populations enrolled in intervention studies have shown improved survival rates in patients with a recent intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke, data from a large, observational study in the Netherlands suggested a much darker real-world picture, with a 6-month mortality of 64% identified in a total cohort of nearly 15,000 people followed prospectively starting in 1990.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

In striking contrast to the survival pattern over time of patients in the same Dutch study who had a first acute ischemic stroke, which showed a statistically significant and meaningful cut in mortality for ischemic stroke patients during the 25-year period examined, survival rates for patients during the first months following a first intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) stayed flat during 1991-2015, Reem Waziry, MD, said at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association.

“The promising treatment advances [applied to patients] in the recent ICH trials may not be reflected in community-based treatment,” suggested Dr. Waziry, a research and teaching fellow in clinical epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.

The data she reported came from the Rotterdam Study, which followed unselected, older people in the Rotterdam community with no stroke history, and during 25 years of monitoring identified 162 incident ICH strokes and 988 acute ischemic strokes. Concurrently with Dr. Waziry’s talk at the conference, the data she reported were published in Stroke. The data she reported also showed that, during the 25 years studied, mortality at 3 years following a first ICH stroke rose to 73% on average.

During her talk, Dr. Waziry also presented an unpublished comparison of the 64% 6-month mortality in the Rotterdam Study with the 3- to 6-month mortality reported in the control arms of four recent, randomized intervention trials, including the MISTIE III trial. Among the four randomized trials Dr. Waziry selected to make this post-hoc comparison, the study with the highest mortality among control patients was MISTIE III, which showed about 25% mortality after 6 months. In contrast, the 19% 6-month mortality among ischemic stroke patients in the Rotterdam Study was roughly similar to the mortality seem in the control arms of some recent studies of interventions for patients with acute ischemic stroke.

The Rotterdam Study receives no commercial funding. Dr. Waziry had no disclosures.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Waziry R et al. ISC 2020, Abstract LB14.

LOS ANGELES – Although recent findings from circumscribed patient populations enrolled in intervention studies have shown improved survival rates in patients with a recent intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke, data from a large, observational study in the Netherlands suggested a much darker real-world picture, with a 6-month mortality of 64% identified in a total cohort of nearly 15,000 people followed prospectively starting in 1990.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

In striking contrast to the survival pattern over time of patients in the same Dutch study who had a first acute ischemic stroke, which showed a statistically significant and meaningful cut in mortality for ischemic stroke patients during the 25-year period examined, survival rates for patients during the first months following a first intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) stayed flat during 1991-2015, Reem Waziry, MD, said at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association.

“The promising treatment advances [applied to patients] in the recent ICH trials may not be reflected in community-based treatment,” suggested Dr. Waziry, a research and teaching fellow in clinical epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.

The data she reported came from the Rotterdam Study, which followed unselected, older people in the Rotterdam community with no stroke history, and during 25 years of monitoring identified 162 incident ICH strokes and 988 acute ischemic strokes. Concurrently with Dr. Waziry’s talk at the conference, the data she reported were published in Stroke. The data she reported also showed that, during the 25 years studied, mortality at 3 years following a first ICH stroke rose to 73% on average.

During her talk, Dr. Waziry also presented an unpublished comparison of the 64% 6-month mortality in the Rotterdam Study with the 3- to 6-month mortality reported in the control arms of four recent, randomized intervention trials, including the MISTIE III trial. Among the four randomized trials Dr. Waziry selected to make this post-hoc comparison, the study with the highest mortality among control patients was MISTIE III, which showed about 25% mortality after 6 months. In contrast, the 19% 6-month mortality among ischemic stroke patients in the Rotterdam Study was roughly similar to the mortality seem in the control arms of some recent studies of interventions for patients with acute ischemic stroke.

The Rotterdam Study receives no commercial funding. Dr. Waziry had no disclosures.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Waziry R et al. ISC 2020, Abstract LB14.

The Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program is finally turning its attention to hemorrhagic strokes after having spurred improved patient management performance from participating U.S. stroke centers since its start in 2003 with a focus on acute ischemic stroke.

The advisers who craft policy for Get With the Guidelines – Stroke (GWTG–S) are planning to launch a pilot program later in 2020 that will initiate data monitoring and quality improvement aimed at optimizing care for patients following an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) starting at 15 U.S. stroke centers, with announcement of these 15 participating centers expected later in 2020. The program will start by targeting nine specific, evidence-based, key aspects of the acute management of ICH patients, said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn, and a volunteer expert who is part of the team developing the ICH initiative.

According to Dr. Sheth, the nine imperatives of acute ICH care that the program plans to monitor at participating centers are:

• Obtain a baseline severity score.
• Identify etiology as spontaneous or treatment related.
• Perform coagulopathy reversal or anticoagulant reversal.
• Administer venous thromboembolism prophylaxis.
• Apply dysphagia screening within 24 hours, and delay oral intake until patient passes dysphagia screen.
• Provide patient management in a multidisciplinary stroke or ICU unit.
• Prescribe appropriate blood pressure treatment at discharge.
• Perform assessment for rehabilitation.
• Avoid prescribing corticosteroids and other contraindicated drugs.

GWTG–S is adopting these metrics for assessing the acute care of ICH patients based largely on the recommendations of an expert 2018 panel organized by the American Heart Association and American Stroke. Association that proposed a set of performance measures for the care of ICH patients. This set of performance measures served as the primary basis for designing the new GWTG–S program, along with considerations of feasibility for collecting data on these measures, Dr. Sheth said in an interview. “We hope to make it easy” for centers to collect the data needed to participate.

The existing GWTG–S program is now 17-years old, and has spread to nearly 2,400 U.S. stroke centers as of early 2020, but the time has come to broaden its reach to patients with ICH and the programs that treat these patients, Dr. Sheth said. After years of nihilism about the prospects for patients following an ICH stroke, survival rates have increased, presenting “an opportunity to optimize care, for quality improvement,” he explained. “It’s a huge shift.” ICH patients “do better than we used to think.”

[email protected]

The Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program is finally turning its attention to hemorrhagic strokes after having spurred improved patient management performance from participating U.S. stroke centers since its start in 2003 with a focus on acute ischemic stroke.

The advisers who craft policy for Get With the Guidelines – Stroke (GWTG–S) are planning to launch a pilot program later in 2020 that will initiate data monitoring and quality improvement aimed at optimizing care for patients following an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) starting at 15 U.S. stroke centers, with announcement of these 15 participating centers expected later in 2020. The program will start by targeting nine specific, evidence-based, key aspects of the acute management of ICH patients, said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn, and a volunteer expert who is part of the team developing the ICH initiative.

According to Dr. Sheth, the nine imperatives of acute ICH care that the program plans to monitor at participating centers are:

• Obtain a baseline severity score.
• Identify etiology as spontaneous or treatment related.
• Perform coagulopathy reversal or anticoagulant reversal.
• Administer venous thromboembolism prophylaxis.
• Apply dysphagia screening within 24 hours, and delay oral intake until patient passes dysphagia screen.
• Provide patient management in a multidisciplinary stroke or ICU unit.
• Prescribe appropriate blood pressure treatment at discharge.
• Perform assessment for rehabilitation.
• Avoid prescribing corticosteroids and other contraindicated drugs.

GWTG–S is adopting these metrics for assessing the acute care of ICH patients based largely on the recommendations of an expert 2018 panel organized by the American Heart Association and American Stroke. Association that proposed a set of performance measures for the care of ICH patients. This set of performance measures served as the primary basis for designing the new GWTG–S program, along with considerations of feasibility for collecting data on these measures, Dr. Sheth said in an interview. “We hope to make it easy” for centers to collect the data needed to participate.

The existing GWTG–S program is now 17-years old, and has spread to nearly 2,400 U.S. stroke centers as of early 2020, but the time has come to broaden its reach to patients with ICH and the programs that treat these patients, Dr. Sheth said. After years of nihilism about the prospects for patients following an ICH stroke, survival rates have increased, presenting “an opportunity to optimize care, for quality improvement,” he explained. “It’s a huge shift.” ICH patients “do better than we used to think.”

[email protected]

The Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program is finally turning its attention to hemorrhagic strokes after having spurred improved patient management performance from participating U.S. stroke centers since its start in 2003 with a focus on acute ischemic stroke.

The advisers who craft policy for Get With the Guidelines – Stroke (GWTG–S) are planning to launch a pilot program later in 2020 that will initiate data monitoring and quality improvement aimed at optimizing care for patients following an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) starting at 15 U.S. stroke centers, with announcement of these 15 participating centers expected later in 2020. The program will start by targeting nine specific, evidence-based, key aspects of the acute management of ICH patients, said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn, and a volunteer expert who is part of the team developing the ICH initiative.

According to Dr. Sheth, the nine imperatives of acute ICH care that the program plans to monitor at participating centers are:

• Obtain a baseline severity score.
• Identify etiology as spontaneous or treatment related.
• Perform coagulopathy reversal or anticoagulant reversal.
• Administer venous thromboembolism prophylaxis.
• Apply dysphagia screening within 24 hours, and delay oral intake until patient passes dysphagia screen.
• Provide patient management in a multidisciplinary stroke or ICU unit.
• Prescribe appropriate blood pressure treatment at discharge.
• Perform assessment for rehabilitation.
• Avoid prescribing corticosteroids and other contraindicated drugs.

GWTG–S is adopting these metrics for assessing the acute care of ICH patients based largely on the recommendations of an expert 2018 panel organized by the American Heart Association and American Stroke. Association that proposed a set of performance measures for the care of ICH patients. This set of performance measures served as the primary basis for designing the new GWTG–S program, along with considerations of feasibility for collecting data on these measures, Dr. Sheth said in an interview. “We hope to make it easy” for centers to collect the data needed to participate.

The existing GWTG–S program is now 17-years old, and has spread to nearly 2,400 U.S. stroke centers as of early 2020, but the time has come to broaden its reach to patients with ICH and the programs that treat these patients, Dr. Sheth said. After years of nihilism about the prospects for patients following an ICH stroke, survival rates have increased, presenting “an opportunity to optimize care, for quality improvement,” he explained. “It’s a huge shift.” ICH patients “do better than we used to think.”

[email protected]

LOS ANGELES – Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) appears to be not nearly as uniformly devastating to patients as its reputation suggests. Recent study results documented unexpectedly decent recovery prospects for hemorrhagic stroke patients assessed after 1 year who were earlier considered moderately severe or severely disabled based on their 30-day status. And these data provide further support for the growing impression among clinicians that a way forward for improving outcomes even more is with a “gentle” surgical intervention designed to substantially reduce ICH clot volume.

“Historically, there’s been a lot of nihilism around these patients. Intracerebral hemorrhage has always been the deadliest stroke type, but one of the great advances of the past 10-20 years is that ICH survival has improved. Patients do better than we used to think,” said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn. “Even though ICH remains a difficult disease, this change has two big implications,” Dr. Sheth said in an interview during the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. First, increased ICH survival offers an opportunity to expand the reach of recent management advances through quality improvement programs that emphasize new strategies that work better and incentivize delivery of these successful strategies to more patients.

The second implication is simply a growing number of ICH survivors, expanding the population of patients who stand to gain from these new management strategies. Dr. Sheth is working with the Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program, a quality-improvement program begun in 2003 and until now aimed at patients with acute ischemic stroke, to develop a 15-site pilot program planned to start in 2020 that will begin implementing and studying a Get With the Guidelines – Stroke quality-improvement program focused on patients with an ICH. The current conception of a quality measurement and improvement program like Get with the Guidelines – Stroke for patients with ICH stems from an important, earlier milestone in the emergence of effective ICH treatments, the 2018 publication of performance measures for ICH care that identified nine key management steps for assessing quality of care and documented the evidence behind them.

“Evidence for optimal treatment of ICH has lagged behind that for ischemic stroke, and consequently, metrics specific to ICH care have not been widely promulgated,” said the authors of the 2018 ICH performance measures, a panel that included Dr. Sheth. “However, numerous more recent studies and clinical trials of various medical and surgical interventions for ICH have been published and form the basis of evidence-based guidelines for the management of ICH,” they explained.
 

MISTIE III showcases better ICH outcomes

Perhaps the most dramatic recent evidence of brighter prospects for ICH patients came in data collected during the MISTIE III (Minimally Invasive Surgery with Thrombolysis in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation III) trial, which randomized 506 ICH patients with a hematoma of at least 30 mL to standard care or to a “gentle” clot-reduction protocol using a small-bore catheter placed with stereotactic guidance to both evacuate clot and introduce a serial infusion of alteplase into the clot to try to shrink its volume to less than 15 mL. The study’s results showed a neutral effect for the primary outcome, the incidence of recovery to a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-3 at 1 year after entry, which occurred in 45% of the surgically treated patients and 41% of the controls in a modified intention-to-treat analysis that included 499 of the randomized patients, a difference that did not reach statistical significance.

However, when the analysis focused on the 146 of 247 patients (59%) randomized to surgical plus lytic intervention who underwent the procedure and actually had their clot volume reduced to 15 mL or less per protocol, the adjusted incidence of the primary endpoint was double that of patients who underwent the procedure but failed to have their residual clot reduced to this size. A similar doubling of good outcomes occurred when MISTIE patients had their residual clot cut to 20 mL or less, compared with those who didn’t reach this, with the differences in both analyses statistically significant. The actual rates showed patients with clot cut to 15 mL or less having a 53% rate of a mRS score of 0-3 after 1 year, compared with 33% of patients who received the intervention but had their residual clot remain above 15 mL.

The MISTIE III investigators looked at their data to try to get better insight into the outcome of all “poor prognosis” patients in the study regardless of their treatment arm assignment, and how patients and their family members made decisions for withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy. In MISTIE III, 61 patients had withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment (WoLST), with more than 40% of the WoLST occurring with patients randomized to the intervention arm including 10 patients treated to a residual clot volume of 15 mL or less. To quantify the disease severity in these 61 patients, the researchers applied a six-item formula at 30 days after the stroke, a metric their 2019 report described in detail. They then used these severity scores to identify 104 matched patients who were alive at 30 days and remained on life-sustaining treatment to see their 1-year outcomes. At 30 days, the 104 matched patients included 82 (79%) with a mRS score of 5 (severe disability) and 22 patients (21%) with a mRS score of 4 (moderately severe disability). Overall, an mRS score of 4 or 5 was quite prevalent 30 days after the stroke, with 87% of the patients treated with the MISTIE intervention and 90% of the control patients having this degree of disability at 30 days.

When the MISTIE III investigators followed these patients for a year, they made an unexpected finding: A substantial incidence of patients whose condition had improved since day 30. One year out, 40 (39%) of these 104 patients had improved to a mRS score of 1-3, including 10 (10%) with a mRS score of 1 or 2. Another indicator of the reasonable outcome many of these patients achieved was that after 1 year 69% were living at home.

“Our data show that many ICH subjects with clinical factors that suggest ‘poor prognosis,’ when given time, can achieve a favorable outcome and return home,” concluded Noeleen Ostapkovich, who presented these results at the Stroke Conference.

She cited these findings as potentially helpful for refining the information given to patients and families on the prognosis for ICH patients at about 30 days after their event, the usual time for assessment. “These patients looked like they weren’t going to do well after 30 days, but by 365 days they had improved physically and in their ability to care for themselves at home,” noted Ms. Ostapkovich, a researcher in the Brain Injury Outcomes Clinical Trial Coordinating Center of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
 

A message for acute-care clinicians

She and her colleagues highlighted the implications these new findings have for clinical decision making in the first weeks after an ICH.

“Acute-care physicians see these patients at day 30, not at day 365, so it’s important that they have a clear picture of what these patients could look like a year later. It’s an important message,” Ms. Ostapkovich said in an interview.

In fact, a colleague of hers at Johns Hopkins ran an analysis that looked at factors that contributed to families opting for WoLST for 61 of the MISTIE III patients, and found that 38 family groups (62%) cited the anticipated outcome of the patient in a dependent state as their primary reason for opting for WoLST, Lourdes J. Carhuapoma reported in a separate talk at the conference.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

“The main message is that many patients with significant ICH did well and recovered despite having very poor prognostic factors at 30 days, but it took more time. A concern is that the [prognostic] information families receive may be wrong. There is a disconnect,” between what families get told to expect and what actually happens, said Ms. Carhuapoma, an acute care nurse practitioner at Johns Hopkins.

“When physicians, nurses, and family members get together” to discuss ICH patients like these after 30 days, “they see the glass as empty. But the real message is that the glass is half full,” summed up Daniel F. Hanley, MD, lead investigator of MISTIE III and professor of neurology at Johns Hopkins. “These data show a large amount of improvement between 30 and 180 days.” The 104 patients with exclusively mRS scores of 4 or 5 at day 30 had a 30% incidence of improvement to an mRS score of 2 or 3 after 180 days, on their way to a 39% rate of mRS scores of 1-3 at 1 year.

An additional analysis that has not yet been presented showed that the “strongest predictor” of whether or not patients who presented with a mRS score of 4 or 5 after 30 days improved their status at 1 year was if their residual hematoma volume shrank to 15 mL or less, Dr. Hanley said in an interview. “It’s not rocket science. If you had to choose between a 45-mL hematoma and less than 15 mL, which would you choose? What’s new here is how this recovery can play out,” taking 180 days or longer in some patients to become apparent.
 

More evidence needed to prove MISTIE’s hypothesis

According to Dr. Hanley, the MISTIE III findings have begun to influence practice despite its neutral primary finding, with more attention being paid to reducing residual clot volume following an ICH. And evidence continues to mount that more aggressive minimization of hematoma size can have an important effect on outcomes. For example, another study presented at the conference assessed the incremental change in prognostic accuracy when the ICH score, a five-item formula for estimating the prognosis of an ICH patient, substituted a precise quantification of residual hematoma volume rather than the original, dichotomous entry for either a hematoma volume of 30 mL or greater, or less than 30 mL, and when the severity score also quantified intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) volume rather than simply designating IVH as present or absent.

Using data from 933 patients who had been enrolled in either MISTIE III or in another study of hematoma volume reduction, CLEAR III, the analysis showed that including specific quantification of both residual ICH volume as well as residual IVH volume improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICH score as a prognostic assessment from 0.70 to 0.75 in the intervention arms of the two trials, and from 0.60 to 0.68 in the two combined control arms, Adam de Havenon, MD, reported in a talk at the conference. “These data show that quantifying ICH and IVH volume improves mortality prognostication,” concluded Dr. de Havenon, a vascular and stroke neurologist at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

Furthermore, it’s “certainly evidence for the importance of volume reduction,” he said during discussion of his talk. “The MISTIE procedure can reset patients” so that their outcomes become more like patients with much smaller clot volumes even if they start with large hematomas. “In our experience, if the volume is reduced to 5 mL, there is real benefit regardless of how big the clot was initially,” Dr. de Havenon said.

But the neutral result for the MISTIE III primary endpoint will, for the time being, hobble application of this concept and keep the MISTIE intervention from rising to a level I recommendation until greater evidence for its efficacy comes out.

“It’s been known for many years that clot size matters when it comes to ICH. The MISTIE team has made a very compelling case that [reducing clot volume] is a very reasonable hypothesis, but we must continue to acquire data that can confirm it,” Dr. Sheth commented.

Dr. Sheth’s institution receives research funding from Novartis and Bard for studies that Dr. Sheth helps run. The MISTIE III study received the alteplase used in the study at no cost from Genentech. Ms. Ostapkovich and Ms. Carhuapoma had no disclosures. Dr. Hanley has received personal fees from BrainScope, Medtronic, Neurotrope, Op2Lysis, and Portola. Dr. de Havenon has received research funding from Regeneron.

[email protected]

LOS ANGELES – Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) appears to be not nearly as uniformly devastating to patients as its reputation suggests. Recent study results documented unexpectedly decent recovery prospects for hemorrhagic stroke patients assessed after 1 year who were earlier considered moderately severe or severely disabled based on their 30-day status. And these data provide further support for the growing impression among clinicians that a way forward for improving outcomes even more is with a “gentle” surgical intervention designed to substantially reduce ICH clot volume.

“Historically, there’s been a lot of nihilism around these patients. Intracerebral hemorrhage has always been the deadliest stroke type, but one of the great advances of the past 10-20 years is that ICH survival has improved. Patients do better than we used to think,” said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn. “Even though ICH remains a difficult disease, this change has two big implications,” Dr. Sheth said in an interview during the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. First, increased ICH survival offers an opportunity to expand the reach of recent management advances through quality improvement programs that emphasize new strategies that work better and incentivize delivery of these successful strategies to more patients.

The second implication is simply a growing number of ICH survivors, expanding the population of patients who stand to gain from these new management strategies. Dr. Sheth is working with the Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program, a quality-improvement program begun in 2003 and until now aimed at patients with acute ischemic stroke, to develop a 15-site pilot program planned to start in 2020 that will begin implementing and studying a Get With the Guidelines – Stroke quality-improvement program focused on patients with an ICH. The current conception of a quality measurement and improvement program like Get with the Guidelines – Stroke for patients with ICH stems from an important, earlier milestone in the emergence of effective ICH treatments, the 2018 publication of performance measures for ICH care that identified nine key management steps for assessing quality of care and documented the evidence behind them.

“Evidence for optimal treatment of ICH has lagged behind that for ischemic stroke, and consequently, metrics specific to ICH care have not been widely promulgated,” said the authors of the 2018 ICH performance measures, a panel that included Dr. Sheth. “However, numerous more recent studies and clinical trials of various medical and surgical interventions for ICH have been published and form the basis of evidence-based guidelines for the management of ICH,” they explained.
 

MISTIE III showcases better ICH outcomes

Perhaps the most dramatic recent evidence of brighter prospects for ICH patients came in data collected during the MISTIE III (Minimally Invasive Surgery with Thrombolysis in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation III) trial, which randomized 506 ICH patients with a hematoma of at least 30 mL to standard care or to a “gentle” clot-reduction protocol using a small-bore catheter placed with stereotactic guidance to both evacuate clot and introduce a serial infusion of alteplase into the clot to try to shrink its volume to less than 15 mL. The study’s results showed a neutral effect for the primary outcome, the incidence of recovery to a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-3 at 1 year after entry, which occurred in 45% of the surgically treated patients and 41% of the controls in a modified intention-to-treat analysis that included 499 of the randomized patients, a difference that did not reach statistical significance.

However, when the analysis focused on the 146 of 247 patients (59%) randomized to surgical plus lytic intervention who underwent the procedure and actually had their clot volume reduced to 15 mL or less per protocol, the adjusted incidence of the primary endpoint was double that of patients who underwent the procedure but failed to have their residual clot reduced to this size. A similar doubling of good outcomes occurred when MISTIE patients had their residual clot cut to 20 mL or less, compared with those who didn’t reach this, with the differences in both analyses statistically significant. The actual rates showed patients with clot cut to 15 mL or less having a 53% rate of a mRS score of 0-3 after 1 year, compared with 33% of patients who received the intervention but had their residual clot remain above 15 mL.

The MISTIE III investigators looked at their data to try to get better insight into the outcome of all “poor prognosis” patients in the study regardless of their treatment arm assignment, and how patients and their family members made decisions for withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy. In MISTIE III, 61 patients had withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment (WoLST), with more than 40% of the WoLST occurring with patients randomized to the intervention arm including 10 patients treated to a residual clot volume of 15 mL or less. To quantify the disease severity in these 61 patients, the researchers applied a six-item formula at 30 days after the stroke, a metric their 2019 report described in detail. They then used these severity scores to identify 104 matched patients who were alive at 30 days and remained on life-sustaining treatment to see their 1-year outcomes. At 30 days, the 104 matched patients included 82 (79%) with a mRS score of 5 (severe disability) and 22 patients (21%) with a mRS score of 4 (moderately severe disability). Overall, an mRS score of 4 or 5 was quite prevalent 30 days after the stroke, with 87% of the patients treated with the MISTIE intervention and 90% of the control patients having this degree of disability at 30 days.

When the MISTIE III investigators followed these patients for a year, they made an unexpected finding: A substantial incidence of patients whose condition had improved since day 30. One year out, 40 (39%) of these 104 patients had improved to a mRS score of 1-3, including 10 (10%) with a mRS score of 1 or 2. Another indicator of the reasonable outcome many of these patients achieved was that after 1 year 69% were living at home.

“Our data show that many ICH subjects with clinical factors that suggest ‘poor prognosis,’ when given time, can achieve a favorable outcome and return home,” concluded Noeleen Ostapkovich, who presented these results at the Stroke Conference.

She cited these findings as potentially helpful for refining the information given to patients and families on the prognosis for ICH patients at about 30 days after their event, the usual time for assessment. “These patients looked like they weren’t going to do well after 30 days, but by 365 days they had improved physically and in their ability to care for themselves at home,” noted Ms. Ostapkovich, a researcher in the Brain Injury Outcomes Clinical Trial Coordinating Center of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
 

A message for acute-care clinicians

She and her colleagues highlighted the implications these new findings have for clinical decision making in the first weeks after an ICH.

“Acute-care physicians see these patients at day 30, not at day 365, so it’s important that they have a clear picture of what these patients could look like a year later. It’s an important message,” Ms. Ostapkovich said in an interview.

In fact, a colleague of hers at Johns Hopkins ran an analysis that looked at factors that contributed to families opting for WoLST for 61 of the MISTIE III patients, and found that 38 family groups (62%) cited the anticipated outcome of the patient in a dependent state as their primary reason for opting for WoLST, Lourdes J. Carhuapoma reported in a separate talk at the conference.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

“The main message is that many patients with significant ICH did well and recovered despite having very poor prognostic factors at 30 days, but it took more time. A concern is that the [prognostic] information families receive may be wrong. There is a disconnect,” between what families get told to expect and what actually happens, said Ms. Carhuapoma, an acute care nurse practitioner at Johns Hopkins.

“When physicians, nurses, and family members get together” to discuss ICH patients like these after 30 days, “they see the glass as empty. But the real message is that the glass is half full,” summed up Daniel F. Hanley, MD, lead investigator of MISTIE III and professor of neurology at Johns Hopkins. “These data show a large amount of improvement between 30 and 180 days.” The 104 patients with exclusively mRS scores of 4 or 5 at day 30 had a 30% incidence of improvement to an mRS score of 2 or 3 after 180 days, on their way to a 39% rate of mRS scores of 1-3 at 1 year.

An additional analysis that has not yet been presented showed that the “strongest predictor” of whether or not patients who presented with a mRS score of 4 or 5 after 30 days improved their status at 1 year was if their residual hematoma volume shrank to 15 mL or less, Dr. Hanley said in an interview. “It’s not rocket science. If you had to choose between a 45-mL hematoma and less than 15 mL, which would you choose? What’s new here is how this recovery can play out,” taking 180 days or longer in some patients to become apparent.
 

More evidence needed to prove MISTIE’s hypothesis

According to Dr. Hanley, the MISTIE III findings have begun to influence practice despite its neutral primary finding, with more attention being paid to reducing residual clot volume following an ICH. And evidence continues to mount that more aggressive minimization of hematoma size can have an important effect on outcomes. For example, another study presented at the conference assessed the incremental change in prognostic accuracy when the ICH score, a five-item formula for estimating the prognosis of an ICH patient, substituted a precise quantification of residual hematoma volume rather than the original, dichotomous entry for either a hematoma volume of 30 mL or greater, or less than 30 mL, and when the severity score also quantified intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) volume rather than simply designating IVH as present or absent.

Using data from 933 patients who had been enrolled in either MISTIE III or in another study of hematoma volume reduction, CLEAR III, the analysis showed that including specific quantification of both residual ICH volume as well as residual IVH volume improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICH score as a prognostic assessment from 0.70 to 0.75 in the intervention arms of the two trials, and from 0.60 to 0.68 in the two combined control arms, Adam de Havenon, MD, reported in a talk at the conference. “These data show that quantifying ICH and IVH volume improves mortality prognostication,” concluded Dr. de Havenon, a vascular and stroke neurologist at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

Furthermore, it’s “certainly evidence for the importance of volume reduction,” he said during discussion of his talk. “The MISTIE procedure can reset patients” so that their outcomes become more like patients with much smaller clot volumes even if they start with large hematomas. “In our experience, if the volume is reduced to 5 mL, there is real benefit regardless of how big the clot was initially,” Dr. de Havenon said.

But the neutral result for the MISTIE III primary endpoint will, for the time being, hobble application of this concept and keep the MISTIE intervention from rising to a level I recommendation until greater evidence for its efficacy comes out.

“It’s been known for many years that clot size matters when it comes to ICH. The MISTIE team has made a very compelling case that [reducing clot volume] is a very reasonable hypothesis, but we must continue to acquire data that can confirm it,” Dr. Sheth commented.

Dr. Sheth’s institution receives research funding from Novartis and Bard for studies that Dr. Sheth helps run. The MISTIE III study received the alteplase used in the study at no cost from Genentech. Ms. Ostapkovich and Ms. Carhuapoma had no disclosures. Dr. Hanley has received personal fees from BrainScope, Medtronic, Neurotrope, Op2Lysis, and Portola. Dr. de Havenon has received research funding from Regeneron.

[email protected]

LOS ANGELES – Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) appears to be not nearly as uniformly devastating to patients as its reputation suggests. Recent study results documented unexpectedly decent recovery prospects for hemorrhagic stroke patients assessed after 1 year who were earlier considered moderately severe or severely disabled based on their 30-day status. And these data provide further support for the growing impression among clinicians that a way forward for improving outcomes even more is with a “gentle” surgical intervention designed to substantially reduce ICH clot volume.

“Historically, there’s been a lot of nihilism around these patients. Intracerebral hemorrhage has always been the deadliest stroke type, but one of the great advances of the past 10-20 years is that ICH survival has improved. Patients do better than we used to think,” said Kevin N. Sheth, MD, professor of neurology and neurosurgery, and chief of neurocritical care and emergency neurology at Yale University in New Haven, Conn. “Even though ICH remains a difficult disease, this change has two big implications,” Dr. Sheth said in an interview during the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. First, increased ICH survival offers an opportunity to expand the reach of recent management advances through quality improvement programs that emphasize new strategies that work better and incentivize delivery of these successful strategies to more patients.

The second implication is simply a growing number of ICH survivors, expanding the population of patients who stand to gain from these new management strategies. Dr. Sheth is working with the Get With the Guidelines – Stroke program, a quality-improvement program begun in 2003 and until now aimed at patients with acute ischemic stroke, to develop a 15-site pilot program planned to start in 2020 that will begin implementing and studying a Get With the Guidelines – Stroke quality-improvement program focused on patients with an ICH. The current conception of a quality measurement and improvement program like Get with the Guidelines – Stroke for patients with ICH stems from an important, earlier milestone in the emergence of effective ICH treatments, the 2018 publication of performance measures for ICH care that identified nine key management steps for assessing quality of care and documented the evidence behind them.

“Evidence for optimal treatment of ICH has lagged behind that for ischemic stroke, and consequently, metrics specific to ICH care have not been widely promulgated,” said the authors of the 2018 ICH performance measures, a panel that included Dr. Sheth. “However, numerous more recent studies and clinical trials of various medical and surgical interventions for ICH have been published and form the basis of evidence-based guidelines for the management of ICH,” they explained.
 

MISTIE III showcases better ICH outcomes

Perhaps the most dramatic recent evidence of brighter prospects for ICH patients came in data collected during the MISTIE III (Minimally Invasive Surgery with Thrombolysis in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation III) trial, which randomized 506 ICH patients with a hematoma of at least 30 mL to standard care or to a “gentle” clot-reduction protocol using a small-bore catheter placed with stereotactic guidance to both evacuate clot and introduce a serial infusion of alteplase into the clot to try to shrink its volume to less than 15 mL. The study’s results showed a neutral effect for the primary outcome, the incidence of recovery to a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-3 at 1 year after entry, which occurred in 45% of the surgically treated patients and 41% of the controls in a modified intention-to-treat analysis that included 499 of the randomized patients, a difference that did not reach statistical significance.

However, when the analysis focused on the 146 of 247 patients (59%) randomized to surgical plus lytic intervention who underwent the procedure and actually had their clot volume reduced to 15 mL or less per protocol, the adjusted incidence of the primary endpoint was double that of patients who underwent the procedure but failed to have their residual clot reduced to this size. A similar doubling of good outcomes occurred when MISTIE patients had their residual clot cut to 20 mL or less, compared with those who didn’t reach this, with the differences in both analyses statistically significant. The actual rates showed patients with clot cut to 15 mL or less having a 53% rate of a mRS score of 0-3 after 1 year, compared with 33% of patients who received the intervention but had their residual clot remain above 15 mL.

The MISTIE III investigators looked at their data to try to get better insight into the outcome of all “poor prognosis” patients in the study regardless of their treatment arm assignment, and how patients and their family members made decisions for withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy. In MISTIE III, 61 patients had withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment (WoLST), with more than 40% of the WoLST occurring with patients randomized to the intervention arm including 10 patients treated to a residual clot volume of 15 mL or less. To quantify the disease severity in these 61 patients, the researchers applied a six-item formula at 30 days after the stroke, a metric their 2019 report described in detail. They then used these severity scores to identify 104 matched patients who were alive at 30 days and remained on life-sustaining treatment to see their 1-year outcomes. At 30 days, the 104 matched patients included 82 (79%) with a mRS score of 5 (severe disability) and 22 patients (21%) with a mRS score of 4 (moderately severe disability). Overall, an mRS score of 4 or 5 was quite prevalent 30 days after the stroke, with 87% of the patients treated with the MISTIE intervention and 90% of the control patients having this degree of disability at 30 days.

When the MISTIE III investigators followed these patients for a year, they made an unexpected finding: A substantial incidence of patients whose condition had improved since day 30. One year out, 40 (39%) of these 104 patients had improved to a mRS score of 1-3, including 10 (10%) with a mRS score of 1 or 2. Another indicator of the reasonable outcome many of these patients achieved was that after 1 year 69% were living at home.

“Our data show that many ICH subjects with clinical factors that suggest ‘poor prognosis,’ when given time, can achieve a favorable outcome and return home,” concluded Noeleen Ostapkovich, who presented these results at the Stroke Conference.

She cited these findings as potentially helpful for refining the information given to patients and families on the prognosis for ICH patients at about 30 days after their event, the usual time for assessment. “These patients looked like they weren’t going to do well after 30 days, but by 365 days they had improved physically and in their ability to care for themselves at home,” noted Ms. Ostapkovich, a researcher in the Brain Injury Outcomes Clinical Trial Coordinating Center of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
 

A message for acute-care clinicians

She and her colleagues highlighted the implications these new findings have for clinical decision making in the first weeks after an ICH.

“Acute-care physicians see these patients at day 30, not at day 365, so it’s important that they have a clear picture of what these patients could look like a year later. It’s an important message,” Ms. Ostapkovich said in an interview.

In fact, a colleague of hers at Johns Hopkins ran an analysis that looked at factors that contributed to families opting for WoLST for 61 of the MISTIE III patients, and found that 38 family groups (62%) cited the anticipated outcome of the patient in a dependent state as their primary reason for opting for WoLST, Lourdes J. Carhuapoma reported in a separate talk at the conference.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

“The main message is that many patients with significant ICH did well and recovered despite having very poor prognostic factors at 30 days, but it took more time. A concern is that the [prognostic] information families receive may be wrong. There is a disconnect,” between what families get told to expect and what actually happens, said Ms. Carhuapoma, an acute care nurse practitioner at Johns Hopkins.

“When physicians, nurses, and family members get together” to discuss ICH patients like these after 30 days, “they see the glass as empty. But the real message is that the glass is half full,” summed up Daniel F. Hanley, MD, lead investigator of MISTIE III and professor of neurology at Johns Hopkins. “These data show a large amount of improvement between 30 and 180 days.” The 104 patients with exclusively mRS scores of 4 or 5 at day 30 had a 30% incidence of improvement to an mRS score of 2 or 3 after 180 days, on their way to a 39% rate of mRS scores of 1-3 at 1 year.

An additional analysis that has not yet been presented showed that the “strongest predictor” of whether or not patients who presented with a mRS score of 4 or 5 after 30 days improved their status at 1 year was if their residual hematoma volume shrank to 15 mL or less, Dr. Hanley said in an interview. “It’s not rocket science. If you had to choose between a 45-mL hematoma and less than 15 mL, which would you choose? What’s new here is how this recovery can play out,” taking 180 days or longer in some patients to become apparent.
 

More evidence needed to prove MISTIE’s hypothesis

According to Dr. Hanley, the MISTIE III findings have begun to influence practice despite its neutral primary finding, with more attention being paid to reducing residual clot volume following an ICH. And evidence continues to mount that more aggressive minimization of hematoma size can have an important effect on outcomes. For example, another study presented at the conference assessed the incremental change in prognostic accuracy when the ICH score, a five-item formula for estimating the prognosis of an ICH patient, substituted a precise quantification of residual hematoma volume rather than the original, dichotomous entry for either a hematoma volume of 30 mL or greater, or less than 30 mL, and when the severity score also quantified intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) volume rather than simply designating IVH as present or absent.

Using data from 933 patients who had been enrolled in either MISTIE III or in another study of hematoma volume reduction, CLEAR III, the analysis showed that including specific quantification of both residual ICH volume as well as residual IVH volume improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICH score as a prognostic assessment from 0.70 to 0.75 in the intervention arms of the two trials, and from 0.60 to 0.68 in the two combined control arms, Adam de Havenon, MD, reported in a talk at the conference. “These data show that quantifying ICH and IVH volume improves mortality prognostication,” concluded Dr. de Havenon, a vascular and stroke neurologist at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Mitchel L. Zoler/MDedge News

Furthermore, it’s “certainly evidence for the importance of volume reduction,” he said during discussion of his talk. “The MISTIE procedure can reset patients” so that their outcomes become more like patients with much smaller clot volumes even if they start with large hematomas. “In our experience, if the volume is reduced to 5 mL, there is real benefit regardless of how big the clot was initially,” Dr. de Havenon said.

But the neutral result for the MISTIE III primary endpoint will, for the time being, hobble application of this concept and keep the MISTIE intervention from rising to a level I recommendation until greater evidence for its efficacy comes out.

“It’s been known for many years that clot size matters when it comes to ICH. The MISTIE team has made a very compelling case that [reducing clot volume] is a very reasonable hypothesis, but we must continue to acquire data that can confirm it,” Dr. Sheth commented.

Dr. Sheth’s institution receives research funding from Novartis and Bard for studies that Dr. Sheth helps run. The MISTIE III study received the alteplase used in the study at no cost from Genentech. Ms. Ostapkovich and Ms. Carhuapoma had no disclosures. Dr. Hanley has received personal fees from BrainScope, Medtronic, Neurotrope, Op2Lysis, and Portola. Dr. de Havenon has received research funding from Regeneron.

[email protected]

Patients with lupus who have sustained high blood pressure may be at significantly increased risk of cardiovascular events, compared with those patients whose blood pressure is in the range now considered to be normal, results of a retrospective, single-center investigation suggest.

FatCamera/E+/Getty Images

Risk of atherosclerotic vascular events was increased by 73% for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who sustained a mean blood pressure of 130/80 to 139/89 mm Hg over 2 years in the study, which included 1,532 patients treated at a clinic in Toronto.

Management of hypertension in SLE patients should start early, and should aim to achieve levels below 130/80 mm Hg, according to the investigators, led by Konstantinos Tselios, MD, PhD, of the Centre for Prognosis Studies in the Rheumatic Diseases at the University of Toronto.

“The findings of the present study support that the target BP should be less than 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus in order to minimize their cardiovascular risk,” Dr. Tselios and coauthors said in their study, which appears in Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases.

Despite the limitations inherent in a retrospective, observational study, this work by Dr. Tselios and colleagues may help inform the care of patients with SLE, according to C. Michael Stein, MBChB, professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.

“It’s really interesting data that’s important and helps us think in terms of figuring out what may be reasonable to do for a particular patient,” Dr. Stein said in an interview.

Starting antihypertensive management early and aiming at levels below 130/80 mm Hg is a strategy that should be “reasonable” for most patients with SLE, said Dr. Stein, adding that the approach specified in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) hypertension guidelines are appropriate to follow. In those guidelines, the threshold for diagnosis of hypertension was lowered to 130/80 mm Hg.

“You can start with risk factor modification, in terms of losing weight, exercising, stopping alcohol, and decreasing salt in the diet to see if you can get the blood pressure down, though it may come down to drug therapy for many patients, I believe,” Dr. Stein said.

Authors of those 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines made no recommendations for patients with SLE or other connective tissue diseases, despite including a section devoted to specific patient subgroups and comorbidities of interest, Dr. Tselios and coauthors noted in their report.

Management of hypertension in patients with lupus may be “delayed” in patients with blood pressures reaching the current hypertension threshold, according to Dr. Tselios and colleagues, due in part to difficulties in cardiovascular risk calculation in SLE patients, as well as current risk considerations outlined in the guidelines.

“On the basis of the recent guidelines, the patient with typical lupus (young female with no traditional atherosclerotic risk factors) would be considered as a low-risk individual and not offered treatment for a BP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg,” they said in their report.

Accordingly, Dr. Tselios and colleagues sought to determine whether the new hypertension definition predicted atherosclerotic vascular events, including new-onset angina, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular events, revascularization procedures, heart failure, or peripheral vascular disease requiring angioplasty, in patients with SLE treated at a Canadian clinic.

Their analysis comprised 1,532 patients with SLE who had at least 2 years of follow-up and had no prior atherosclerotic events on record. Over a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, there were 124 such events documented in those patients.

With a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, the incidence of atherosclerotic events was 18.9 per 1,000 patient-years for patients with blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mm Hg, 11.5 per 1,000 patient-years for the 130-139/80-89 mm Hg group, and 4.5 per 1,000 patient-years for those with blood pressures of 130/80 mm Hg or lower, with differences that were statistically significant between groups, according to the report.

An adjusted blood pressure of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg over the first 2 years since enrollment in the clinic was independently associated with the occurrence of an atherosclerotic event, with a hazard ratio of 1.73 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.69, P = 0.011), according to results of a multivariable analysis.

Those findings support targeting a blood pressure below 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus, according to Dr. Tselios and coauthors.

“It seems reasonable that clinicians should not rely on CV risk calculators in SLE and commence treatment as soon as possible in cases of sustained BP elevation above the threshold of 130/80 mm Hg,” they wrote in their report.

How low to go remains unclear, however, as targeting lower levels of blood pressure might be unsafe in certain groups, such as those SLE patients with prior heart disease or heart failure; nevertheless, recent observational data from non-SLE populations suggest that effective treatment to levels lower than 130/80 mm Hg would “further reduce the incidence of atherosclerotic events in SLE,” the authors said in a discussion of their results.

Dr. Tselios and coauthors said they had no competing interests relative to the study. They reported funding for the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic from the University Health Network, Lou & Marissa Rocca, Mark & Diana Bozzo, and the Lupus Foundation of Ontario.

SOURCE: Tselios K et al. Ann Rheum Dis. 2020 Mar 10. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-216764

Patients with lupus who have sustained high blood pressure may be at significantly increased risk of cardiovascular events, compared with those patients whose blood pressure is in the range now considered to be normal, results of a retrospective, single-center investigation suggest.

FatCamera/E+/Getty Images

Risk of atherosclerotic vascular events was increased by 73% for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who sustained a mean blood pressure of 130/80 to 139/89 mm Hg over 2 years in the study, which included 1,532 patients treated at a clinic in Toronto.

Management of hypertension in SLE patients should start early, and should aim to achieve levels below 130/80 mm Hg, according to the investigators, led by Konstantinos Tselios, MD, PhD, of the Centre for Prognosis Studies in the Rheumatic Diseases at the University of Toronto.

“The findings of the present study support that the target BP should be less than 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus in order to minimize their cardiovascular risk,” Dr. Tselios and coauthors said in their study, which appears in Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases.

Despite the limitations inherent in a retrospective, observational study, this work by Dr. Tselios and colleagues may help inform the care of patients with SLE, according to C. Michael Stein, MBChB, professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.

“It’s really interesting data that’s important and helps us think in terms of figuring out what may be reasonable to do for a particular patient,” Dr. Stein said in an interview.

Starting antihypertensive management early and aiming at levels below 130/80 mm Hg is a strategy that should be “reasonable” for most patients with SLE, said Dr. Stein, adding that the approach specified in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) hypertension guidelines are appropriate to follow. In those guidelines, the threshold for diagnosis of hypertension was lowered to 130/80 mm Hg.

“You can start with risk factor modification, in terms of losing weight, exercising, stopping alcohol, and decreasing salt in the diet to see if you can get the blood pressure down, though it may come down to drug therapy for many patients, I believe,” Dr. Stein said.

Authors of those 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines made no recommendations for patients with SLE or other connective tissue diseases, despite including a section devoted to specific patient subgroups and comorbidities of interest, Dr. Tselios and coauthors noted in their report.

Management of hypertension in patients with lupus may be “delayed” in patients with blood pressures reaching the current hypertension threshold, according to Dr. Tselios and colleagues, due in part to difficulties in cardiovascular risk calculation in SLE patients, as well as current risk considerations outlined in the guidelines.

“On the basis of the recent guidelines, the patient with typical lupus (young female with no traditional atherosclerotic risk factors) would be considered as a low-risk individual and not offered treatment for a BP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg,” they said in their report.

Accordingly, Dr. Tselios and colleagues sought to determine whether the new hypertension definition predicted atherosclerotic vascular events, including new-onset angina, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular events, revascularization procedures, heart failure, or peripheral vascular disease requiring angioplasty, in patients with SLE treated at a Canadian clinic.

Their analysis comprised 1,532 patients with SLE who had at least 2 years of follow-up and had no prior atherosclerotic events on record. Over a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, there were 124 such events documented in those patients.

With a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, the incidence of atherosclerotic events was 18.9 per 1,000 patient-years for patients with blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mm Hg, 11.5 per 1,000 patient-years for the 130-139/80-89 mm Hg group, and 4.5 per 1,000 patient-years for those with blood pressures of 130/80 mm Hg or lower, with differences that were statistically significant between groups, according to the report.

An adjusted blood pressure of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg over the first 2 years since enrollment in the clinic was independently associated with the occurrence of an atherosclerotic event, with a hazard ratio of 1.73 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.69, P = 0.011), according to results of a multivariable analysis.

Those findings support targeting a blood pressure below 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus, according to Dr. Tselios and coauthors.

“It seems reasonable that clinicians should not rely on CV risk calculators in SLE and commence treatment as soon as possible in cases of sustained BP elevation above the threshold of 130/80 mm Hg,” they wrote in their report.

How low to go remains unclear, however, as targeting lower levels of blood pressure might be unsafe in certain groups, such as those SLE patients with prior heart disease or heart failure; nevertheless, recent observational data from non-SLE populations suggest that effective treatment to levels lower than 130/80 mm Hg would “further reduce the incidence of atherosclerotic events in SLE,” the authors said in a discussion of their results.

Dr. Tselios and coauthors said they had no competing interests relative to the study. They reported funding for the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic from the University Health Network, Lou & Marissa Rocca, Mark & Diana Bozzo, and the Lupus Foundation of Ontario.

SOURCE: Tselios K et al. Ann Rheum Dis. 2020 Mar 10. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-216764

Patients with lupus who have sustained high blood pressure may be at significantly increased risk of cardiovascular events, compared with those patients whose blood pressure is in the range now considered to be normal, results of a retrospective, single-center investigation suggest.

FatCamera/E+/Getty Images

Risk of atherosclerotic vascular events was increased by 73% for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who sustained a mean blood pressure of 130/80 to 139/89 mm Hg over 2 years in the study, which included 1,532 patients treated at a clinic in Toronto.

Management of hypertension in SLE patients should start early, and should aim to achieve levels below 130/80 mm Hg, according to the investigators, led by Konstantinos Tselios, MD, PhD, of the Centre for Prognosis Studies in the Rheumatic Diseases at the University of Toronto.

“The findings of the present study support that the target BP should be less than 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus in order to minimize their cardiovascular risk,” Dr. Tselios and coauthors said in their study, which appears in Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases.

Despite the limitations inherent in a retrospective, observational study, this work by Dr. Tselios and colleagues may help inform the care of patients with SLE, according to C. Michael Stein, MBChB, professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.

“It’s really interesting data that’s important and helps us think in terms of figuring out what may be reasonable to do for a particular patient,” Dr. Stein said in an interview.

Starting antihypertensive management early and aiming at levels below 130/80 mm Hg is a strategy that should be “reasonable” for most patients with SLE, said Dr. Stein, adding that the approach specified in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) hypertension guidelines are appropriate to follow. In those guidelines, the threshold for diagnosis of hypertension was lowered to 130/80 mm Hg.

“You can start with risk factor modification, in terms of losing weight, exercising, stopping alcohol, and decreasing salt in the diet to see if you can get the blood pressure down, though it may come down to drug therapy for many patients, I believe,” Dr. Stein said.

Authors of those 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines made no recommendations for patients with SLE or other connective tissue diseases, despite including a section devoted to specific patient subgroups and comorbidities of interest, Dr. Tselios and coauthors noted in their report.

Management of hypertension in patients with lupus may be “delayed” in patients with blood pressures reaching the current hypertension threshold, according to Dr. Tselios and colleagues, due in part to difficulties in cardiovascular risk calculation in SLE patients, as well as current risk considerations outlined in the guidelines.

“On the basis of the recent guidelines, the patient with typical lupus (young female with no traditional atherosclerotic risk factors) would be considered as a low-risk individual and not offered treatment for a BP of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg,” they said in their report.

Accordingly, Dr. Tselios and colleagues sought to determine whether the new hypertension definition predicted atherosclerotic vascular events, including new-onset angina, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular events, revascularization procedures, heart failure, or peripheral vascular disease requiring angioplasty, in patients with SLE treated at a Canadian clinic.

Their analysis comprised 1,532 patients with SLE who had at least 2 years of follow-up and had no prior atherosclerotic events on record. Over a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, there were 124 such events documented in those patients.

With a mean follow-up of nearly 11 years, the incidence of atherosclerotic events was 18.9 per 1,000 patient-years for patients with blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mm Hg, 11.5 per 1,000 patient-years for the 130-139/80-89 mm Hg group, and 4.5 per 1,000 patient-years for those with blood pressures of 130/80 mm Hg or lower, with differences that were statistically significant between groups, according to the report.

An adjusted blood pressure of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg over the first 2 years since enrollment in the clinic was independently associated with the occurrence of an atherosclerotic event, with a hazard ratio of 1.73 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.69, P = 0.011), according to results of a multivariable analysis.

Those findings support targeting a blood pressure below 130/80 mm Hg in all patients with lupus, according to Dr. Tselios and coauthors.

“It seems reasonable that clinicians should not rely on CV risk calculators in SLE and commence treatment as soon as possible in cases of sustained BP elevation above the threshold of 130/80 mm Hg,” they wrote in their report.

How low to go remains unclear, however, as targeting lower levels of blood pressure might be unsafe in certain groups, such as those SLE patients with prior heart disease or heart failure; nevertheless, recent observational data from non-SLE populations suggest that effective treatment to levels lower than 130/80 mm Hg would “further reduce the incidence of atherosclerotic events in SLE,” the authors said in a discussion of their results.

Dr. Tselios and coauthors said they had no competing interests relative to the study. They reported funding for the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic from the University Health Network, Lou & Marissa Rocca, Mark & Diana Bozzo, and the Lupus Foundation of Ontario.

SOURCE: Tselios K et al. Ann Rheum Dis. 2020 Mar 10. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-216764

Two observational studies link better cardiovascular health (CVH) in childhood and midlife to reduced CV mortality and subclinical atherosclerosis in later life. Though many studies have examined CVH and CV mortality in later life, the two studies, published in JAMA Cardiology, examine longitudinal CVH and could inform lifestyle modification.

Together, the studies lend support to the American Heart Association 2010 Strategic Initiative, which put an emphasis on health promotion in children rather than CV disease prevention, Erica Spatz, MD, of Yale University, New Haven, Conn., wrote in an accompanying editorial.

Dr. Spatz pointed out that CV disease prevention can be a tough sell, especially in younger patients for whom the threat of heart disease is distant. These studies and others like them could capture evolving risk factors through patients’ lives, and connect them to current lifestyle and experiences. Such data could overcome barriers to behavioral change and lead to more personalized interventions, she wrote.
 

Framingham Offspring Study

One study, led by Vanessa Xanthakis, PhD, of Boston University, examined the relationship between the length of time during midlife spent in ideal CVH and various CV disease and mortality outcomes at the final examination.

The prospective study included 1,445 participants (mean age 60 years, 52% women) from a Framingham Heart Study Offspring investigation based in Massachusetts. The subjects had completed seven examinations. The current study ranged from 1991 to 2015, and encompassed the fifth, sixth, and seventh examinations. Researchers calculated CVH scores based on resting blood pressure, height, weight, total cholesterol level, fasting blood glucose level, smoking status, diet, and physical activity.

At the seventh examination, 39% of participants had poor CVH scores and 54% had intermediate scores. For each 5-year period of intermediate or ideal CVH (compared with poor) measured in previous examinations, during the follow-up period after the seventh examination, there was an associated reduction in risk for adverse outcomes including incident hypertension (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 056-0.80), diabetes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93), chronic kidney disease (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89), CV disease (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.63-0.85), and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97).

“Our results indicated that living longer in adulthood with better CVH may be potentially beneficial regardless of age because we did not observe statistically significant effect modification by age of the associations between duration in a given CVH score category and any outcome. Overall, our findings support the importance of promoting healthy behaviors throughout the life course,” the authors wrote.

The study was limited by several factors. Diet and physical activity were self-reported, and about half of participants were excluded after missing an examination, which could introduce bias.
 

International cohort study

The second study analyzed data from 9,388 individuals in five prospective cohorts in the United States and Finland. During 1973-2015, it tracked participants from childhood through middle age (age 8-55 years), linking CVH measures to subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in middle age. Led by Norrina Allen, PhD, of the Northwestern University, Chicago, the researchers measured body mass index, total cholesterol level, blood pressure, glucose level, diet, physical activity, and smoking status during a minimum of three examinations. Based on those data, they classified participants as having ideal, intermediate, or poor CVH.

The researchers grouped the participants into five CVH trajectories: High-late decline, which started with high CVH scores at age 8 and maintained them through early adulthood (16%); high-moderate decline (high early scores, moderate decline; 26%); high-early decline (high early scores, early-life decline; 32%); intermediate-late decline (intermediate initial scores, late decline; 16%); and intermediate-early decline (10%). CVH stratification began early: At age 8, 25% of individuals had intermediate CVH scores.

After adjustment for demographics and baseline smoking, diet, and physical activity, the high-late decline CVH group had the smallest mean cIMT value (0.64 mm; 95 % CI, 0.63-0.65 mm), while the intermediate-early decline group, which had the poorest CVH, had the largest (0.72 mm; 95% CI, 0.69-0.76 mm; P less than .001). The relationship was the same even after adjustment for baseline or proximal CVH scores, showing that the trajectory of CVH scores was driving the measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

“Although it remains important to provide treatment to individuals with elevated risk factor levels, the most effective way to reduce the burden of future CV disease may be to prevent the development of those CV disease risk factors, an approach termed primordial prevention. There is a large body of literature showing effective interventions that may help individuals maintain ideal CV health. Our findings suggest that these interventions are critical and should be implemented early in life to prevent the loss of CVH and future CV [disease] development,” the authors wrote.

The study’s limitations include the fact that analyzed cohorts were drawn from studies with varying protocols and CVH measurement methods. It is also limited by its observational nature.

The two studies were funded by a range of nonindustry sources.

SOURCES: Allen N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0140; Corlin N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0109.

Two observational studies link better cardiovascular health (CVH) in childhood and midlife to reduced CV mortality and subclinical atherosclerosis in later life. Though many studies have examined CVH and CV mortality in later life, the two studies, published in JAMA Cardiology, examine longitudinal CVH and could inform lifestyle modification.

Together, the studies lend support to the American Heart Association 2010 Strategic Initiative, which put an emphasis on health promotion in children rather than CV disease prevention, Erica Spatz, MD, of Yale University, New Haven, Conn., wrote in an accompanying editorial.

Dr. Spatz pointed out that CV disease prevention can be a tough sell, especially in younger patients for whom the threat of heart disease is distant. These studies and others like them could capture evolving risk factors through patients’ lives, and connect them to current lifestyle and experiences. Such data could overcome barriers to behavioral change and lead to more personalized interventions, she wrote.
 

Framingham Offspring Study

One study, led by Vanessa Xanthakis, PhD, of Boston University, examined the relationship between the length of time during midlife spent in ideal CVH and various CV disease and mortality outcomes at the final examination.

The prospective study included 1,445 participants (mean age 60 years, 52% women) from a Framingham Heart Study Offspring investigation based in Massachusetts. The subjects had completed seven examinations. The current study ranged from 1991 to 2015, and encompassed the fifth, sixth, and seventh examinations. Researchers calculated CVH scores based on resting blood pressure, height, weight, total cholesterol level, fasting blood glucose level, smoking status, diet, and physical activity.

At the seventh examination, 39% of participants had poor CVH scores and 54% had intermediate scores. For each 5-year period of intermediate or ideal CVH (compared with poor) measured in previous examinations, during the follow-up period after the seventh examination, there was an associated reduction in risk for adverse outcomes including incident hypertension (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 056-0.80), diabetes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93), chronic kidney disease (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89), CV disease (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.63-0.85), and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97).

“Our results indicated that living longer in adulthood with better CVH may be potentially beneficial regardless of age because we did not observe statistically significant effect modification by age of the associations between duration in a given CVH score category and any outcome. Overall, our findings support the importance of promoting healthy behaviors throughout the life course,” the authors wrote.

The study was limited by several factors. Diet and physical activity were self-reported, and about half of participants were excluded after missing an examination, which could introduce bias.
 

International cohort study

The second study analyzed data from 9,388 individuals in five prospective cohorts in the United States and Finland. During 1973-2015, it tracked participants from childhood through middle age (age 8-55 years), linking CVH measures to subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in middle age. Led by Norrina Allen, PhD, of the Northwestern University, Chicago, the researchers measured body mass index, total cholesterol level, blood pressure, glucose level, diet, physical activity, and smoking status during a minimum of three examinations. Based on those data, they classified participants as having ideal, intermediate, or poor CVH.

The researchers grouped the participants into five CVH trajectories: High-late decline, which started with high CVH scores at age 8 and maintained them through early adulthood (16%); high-moderate decline (high early scores, moderate decline; 26%); high-early decline (high early scores, early-life decline; 32%); intermediate-late decline (intermediate initial scores, late decline; 16%); and intermediate-early decline (10%). CVH stratification began early: At age 8, 25% of individuals had intermediate CVH scores.

After adjustment for demographics and baseline smoking, diet, and physical activity, the high-late decline CVH group had the smallest mean cIMT value (0.64 mm; 95 % CI, 0.63-0.65 mm), while the intermediate-early decline group, which had the poorest CVH, had the largest (0.72 mm; 95% CI, 0.69-0.76 mm; P less than .001). The relationship was the same even after adjustment for baseline or proximal CVH scores, showing that the trajectory of CVH scores was driving the measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

“Although it remains important to provide treatment to individuals with elevated risk factor levels, the most effective way to reduce the burden of future CV disease may be to prevent the development of those CV disease risk factors, an approach termed primordial prevention. There is a large body of literature showing effective interventions that may help individuals maintain ideal CV health. Our findings suggest that these interventions are critical and should be implemented early in life to prevent the loss of CVH and future CV [disease] development,” the authors wrote.

The study’s limitations include the fact that analyzed cohorts were drawn from studies with varying protocols and CVH measurement methods. It is also limited by its observational nature.

The two studies were funded by a range of nonindustry sources.

SOURCES: Allen N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0140; Corlin N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0109.

Two observational studies link better cardiovascular health (CVH) in childhood and midlife to reduced CV mortality and subclinical atherosclerosis in later life. Though many studies have examined CVH and CV mortality in later life, the two studies, published in JAMA Cardiology, examine longitudinal CVH and could inform lifestyle modification.

Together, the studies lend support to the American Heart Association 2010 Strategic Initiative, which put an emphasis on health promotion in children rather than CV disease prevention, Erica Spatz, MD, of Yale University, New Haven, Conn., wrote in an accompanying editorial.

Dr. Spatz pointed out that CV disease prevention can be a tough sell, especially in younger patients for whom the threat of heart disease is distant. These studies and others like them could capture evolving risk factors through patients’ lives, and connect them to current lifestyle and experiences. Such data could overcome barriers to behavioral change and lead to more personalized interventions, she wrote.
 

Framingham Offspring Study

One study, led by Vanessa Xanthakis, PhD, of Boston University, examined the relationship between the length of time during midlife spent in ideal CVH and various CV disease and mortality outcomes at the final examination.

The prospective study included 1,445 participants (mean age 60 years, 52% women) from a Framingham Heart Study Offspring investigation based in Massachusetts. The subjects had completed seven examinations. The current study ranged from 1991 to 2015, and encompassed the fifth, sixth, and seventh examinations. Researchers calculated CVH scores based on resting blood pressure, height, weight, total cholesterol level, fasting blood glucose level, smoking status, diet, and physical activity.

At the seventh examination, 39% of participants had poor CVH scores and 54% had intermediate scores. For each 5-year period of intermediate or ideal CVH (compared with poor) measured in previous examinations, during the follow-up period after the seventh examination, there was an associated reduction in risk for adverse outcomes including incident hypertension (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 056-0.80), diabetes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93), chronic kidney disease (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89), CV disease (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.63-0.85), and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97).

“Our results indicated that living longer in adulthood with better CVH may be potentially beneficial regardless of age because we did not observe statistically significant effect modification by age of the associations between duration in a given CVH score category and any outcome. Overall, our findings support the importance of promoting healthy behaviors throughout the life course,” the authors wrote.

The study was limited by several factors. Diet and physical activity were self-reported, and about half of participants were excluded after missing an examination, which could introduce bias.
 

International cohort study

The second study analyzed data from 9,388 individuals in five prospective cohorts in the United States and Finland. During 1973-2015, it tracked participants from childhood through middle age (age 8-55 years), linking CVH measures to subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in middle age. Led by Norrina Allen, PhD, of the Northwestern University, Chicago, the researchers measured body mass index, total cholesterol level, blood pressure, glucose level, diet, physical activity, and smoking status during a minimum of three examinations. Based on those data, they classified participants as having ideal, intermediate, or poor CVH.

The researchers grouped the participants into five CVH trajectories: High-late decline, which started with high CVH scores at age 8 and maintained them through early adulthood (16%); high-moderate decline (high early scores, moderate decline; 26%); high-early decline (high early scores, early-life decline; 32%); intermediate-late decline (intermediate initial scores, late decline; 16%); and intermediate-early decline (10%). CVH stratification began early: At age 8, 25% of individuals had intermediate CVH scores.

After adjustment for demographics and baseline smoking, diet, and physical activity, the high-late decline CVH group had the smallest mean cIMT value (0.64 mm; 95 % CI, 0.63-0.65 mm), while the intermediate-early decline group, which had the poorest CVH, had the largest (0.72 mm; 95% CI, 0.69-0.76 mm; P less than .001). The relationship was the same even after adjustment for baseline or proximal CVH scores, showing that the trajectory of CVH scores was driving the measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

“Although it remains important to provide treatment to individuals with elevated risk factor levels, the most effective way to reduce the burden of future CV disease may be to prevent the development of those CV disease risk factors, an approach termed primordial prevention. There is a large body of literature showing effective interventions that may help individuals maintain ideal CV health. Our findings suggest that these interventions are critical and should be implemented early in life to prevent the loss of CVH and future CV [disease] development,” the authors wrote.

The study’s limitations include the fact that analyzed cohorts were drawn from studies with varying protocols and CVH measurement methods. It is also limited by its observational nature.

The two studies were funded by a range of nonindustry sources.

SOURCES: Allen N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0140; Corlin N et al. JAMA Cardiol. 2020 Mar 11. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0109.

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has issued a statement urging physicians and patients to continue treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), in light of a newly described theory that those agents could increase the risk of developing COVID-19 and/or worsen its severity.

The concern arises from the observation that the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to infect cells, and both ACE inhibitors and ARBs increase ACE2 levels.

This mechanism has been theorized as a possible risk factor for facilitating the acquisition of COVID-19 infection and worsening its severity. However, paradoxically, it has also been hypothesized to protect against acute lung injury from the disease.

Meanwhile, a Lancet Respiratory Medicine article was published March 11 entitled, “Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?”

“We ... hypothesize that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19,” said the authors.

This prompted some media coverage in the United Kingdom and “social media-related amplification,” leading to concern and, in some cases, discontinuation of the drugs by patients.

But on March 13, the ESC Council on Hypertension dismissed the concerns as entirely speculative, in a statement posted to the ESC website.

It said that the council “strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual antihypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACE inhibitors or ARBs should be discontinued because of the COVID-19 infection.”

The statement, signed by Council Chair Professor Giovanni de Simone, MD, on behalf of the nucleus members, also says that in regard to the theorized protective effect against serious lung complications in individuals with COVID-19, the data come only from animal, and not human, studies.

“Speculation about the safety of ACE-inhibitor or ARB treatment in relation to COVID-19 does not have a sound scientific basis or evidence to support it,” the ESC panel concludes.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has issued a statement urging physicians and patients to continue treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), in light of a newly described theory that those agents could increase the risk of developing COVID-19 and/or worsen its severity.

The concern arises from the observation that the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to infect cells, and both ACE inhibitors and ARBs increase ACE2 levels.

This mechanism has been theorized as a possible risk factor for facilitating the acquisition of COVID-19 infection and worsening its severity. However, paradoxically, it has also been hypothesized to protect against acute lung injury from the disease.

Meanwhile, a Lancet Respiratory Medicine article was published March 11 entitled, “Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?”

“We ... hypothesize that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19,” said the authors.

This prompted some media coverage in the United Kingdom and “social media-related amplification,” leading to concern and, in some cases, discontinuation of the drugs by patients.

But on March 13, the ESC Council on Hypertension dismissed the concerns as entirely speculative, in a statement posted to the ESC website.

It said that the council “strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual antihypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACE inhibitors or ARBs should be discontinued because of the COVID-19 infection.”

The statement, signed by Council Chair Professor Giovanni de Simone, MD, on behalf of the nucleus members, also says that in regard to the theorized protective effect against serious lung complications in individuals with COVID-19, the data come only from animal, and not human, studies.

“Speculation about the safety of ACE-inhibitor or ARB treatment in relation to COVID-19 does not have a sound scientific basis or evidence to support it,” the ESC panel concludes.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has issued a statement urging physicians and patients to continue treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), in light of a newly described theory that those agents could increase the risk of developing COVID-19 and/or worsen its severity.

The concern arises from the observation that the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to infect cells, and both ACE inhibitors and ARBs increase ACE2 levels.

This mechanism has been theorized as a possible risk factor for facilitating the acquisition of COVID-19 infection and worsening its severity. However, paradoxically, it has also been hypothesized to protect against acute lung injury from the disease.

Meanwhile, a Lancet Respiratory Medicine article was published March 11 entitled, “Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?”

“We ... hypothesize that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19,” said the authors.

This prompted some media coverage in the United Kingdom and “social media-related amplification,” leading to concern and, in some cases, discontinuation of the drugs by patients.

But on March 13, the ESC Council on Hypertension dismissed the concerns as entirely speculative, in a statement posted to the ESC website.

It said that the council “strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual antihypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACE inhibitors or ARBs should be discontinued because of the COVID-19 infection.”

The statement, signed by Council Chair Professor Giovanni de Simone, MD, on behalf of the nucleus members, also says that in regard to the theorized protective effect against serious lung complications in individuals with COVID-19, the data come only from animal, and not human, studies.

“Speculation about the safety of ACE-inhibitor or ARB treatment in relation to COVID-19 does not have a sound scientific basis or evidence to support it,” the ESC panel concludes.

This article first appeared on Medscape.com.

LOS ANGELES – Investigators have developed a risk score to predict the likelihood of stroke among patients with migraine with aura. The study on which the risk score is based was presented at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. Migraine with aura, for which younger women are at higher risk, increases the risk of ischemic stroke. “With our new risk-prediction tool, we could start identifying those at higher risk, treat their risk factors, and lower their risk of stroke,” said Souvik Sen, MD, MPH, professor and chair of neurology at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, in a press release.

Risk groups significantly discriminated stroke risk

To create the score, Dr. Sen and colleagues examined data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) cohort, which includes community-dwelling people in Forsyth County, N.C.; Jackson, Miss.; Washington County, Md.; and the suburbs of Minneapolis. Researchers have been following the participants since 1987. From this population, Dr. Sen and colleagues identified 429 participants with a history of migraine with aura. Most of these participants were women aged 50-59 years at their first visit. The researchers analyzed the association between potential risk factors and ischemic stroke using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

Of the 429 participants, 31 had an ischemic stroke during a follow-up period of 20 years. Dr. Sen’s group created a risk score by identifying five risk factors for stroke and assigning them points in proportion to their influence (i.e., their regression coefficients). They assigned diabetes mellitus – 7 points; age older than 65 years – 5 points; heart rate variability (i.e., the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals) – 3 points; hypertension – 3 points – and sex – 1 point. Then the researchers calculated risk scores for each patient and defined a low-risk group (from 0-4 points), a moderate-risk group (5-10 points), and a high-risk group (11-21 points).

After 18 years of follow-up, the incidence of stroke was 3% in the low-risk group, 8% in the moderate-risk group, and 34% in the high-risk group. The hazard ratio for ischemic stroke in the high-risk group, compared with the low-risk group, was 7.35. Kaplan Meier curves indicated that the risk-stratification groups significantly discriminated stroke risk among the sample. The risk score should be validated in an independent population cohort, said the investigators.

Dr. Sen and colleagues did not report any funding for this study. Investigators reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health, the American Heart Association, and the American Academy of Neurology.

Score may leave important variables unexamined

One mechanism through which migraine increases the risk of stroke is the constriction of blood vessels, said Louis R. Caplan, MD, professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School in Boston and member of the editorial advisory board of Neurology Reviews. Triptans, which many patients use to treat migraine, also cause vasoconstriction. In addition, migraine increases blood coagulation.

Although the risk score developed by Dr. Sen and colleagues accounts for various comorbidities, it may not apply equally to all patients. “As I understand it, they’re just using migraine with aura as a single factor,” said Dr. Caplan. Variables such as prolonged aura, frequent episodes, and aura-related deficit are associated with increased risk of stroke, but the risk score does not examine these factors.

Patients with severe, long-lasting attacks or attacks that involve weakness or aphasia should receive prophylactic treatment to prevent vasoconstriction, such as verapamil (Verelan), said Dr. Caplan. Antithrombotic agents such as aspirin also may be appropriate prophylaxis. Whether effective treatment of migraine with aura decreases the risk of stroke remains unknown.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Trivedi T et al. ISC 2020. Abstract WMP117.

LOS ANGELES – Investigators have developed a risk score to predict the likelihood of stroke among patients with migraine with aura. The study on which the risk score is based was presented at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. Migraine with aura, for which younger women are at higher risk, increases the risk of ischemic stroke. “With our new risk-prediction tool, we could start identifying those at higher risk, treat their risk factors, and lower their risk of stroke,” said Souvik Sen, MD, MPH, professor and chair of neurology at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, in a press release.

Risk groups significantly discriminated stroke risk

To create the score, Dr. Sen and colleagues examined data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) cohort, which includes community-dwelling people in Forsyth County, N.C.; Jackson, Miss.; Washington County, Md.; and the suburbs of Minneapolis. Researchers have been following the participants since 1987. From this population, Dr. Sen and colleagues identified 429 participants with a history of migraine with aura. Most of these participants were women aged 50-59 years at their first visit. The researchers analyzed the association between potential risk factors and ischemic stroke using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

Of the 429 participants, 31 had an ischemic stroke during a follow-up period of 20 years. Dr. Sen’s group created a risk score by identifying five risk factors for stroke and assigning them points in proportion to their influence (i.e., their regression coefficients). They assigned diabetes mellitus – 7 points; age older than 65 years – 5 points; heart rate variability (i.e., the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals) – 3 points; hypertension – 3 points – and sex – 1 point. Then the researchers calculated risk scores for each patient and defined a low-risk group (from 0-4 points), a moderate-risk group (5-10 points), and a high-risk group (11-21 points).

After 18 years of follow-up, the incidence of stroke was 3% in the low-risk group, 8% in the moderate-risk group, and 34% in the high-risk group. The hazard ratio for ischemic stroke in the high-risk group, compared with the low-risk group, was 7.35. Kaplan Meier curves indicated that the risk-stratification groups significantly discriminated stroke risk among the sample. The risk score should be validated in an independent population cohort, said the investigators.

Dr. Sen and colleagues did not report any funding for this study. Investigators reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health, the American Heart Association, and the American Academy of Neurology.

Score may leave important variables unexamined

One mechanism through which migraine increases the risk of stroke is the constriction of blood vessels, said Louis R. Caplan, MD, professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School in Boston and member of the editorial advisory board of Neurology Reviews. Triptans, which many patients use to treat migraine, also cause vasoconstriction. In addition, migraine increases blood coagulation.

Although the risk score developed by Dr. Sen and colleagues accounts for various comorbidities, it may not apply equally to all patients. “As I understand it, they’re just using migraine with aura as a single factor,” said Dr. Caplan. Variables such as prolonged aura, frequent episodes, and aura-related deficit are associated with increased risk of stroke, but the risk score does not examine these factors.

Patients with severe, long-lasting attacks or attacks that involve weakness or aphasia should receive prophylactic treatment to prevent vasoconstriction, such as verapamil (Verelan), said Dr. Caplan. Antithrombotic agents such as aspirin also may be appropriate prophylaxis. Whether effective treatment of migraine with aura decreases the risk of stroke remains unknown.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Trivedi T et al. ISC 2020. Abstract WMP117.

LOS ANGELES – Investigators have developed a risk score to predict the likelihood of stroke among patients with migraine with aura. The study on which the risk score is based was presented at the International Stroke Conference sponsored by the American Heart Association. Migraine with aura, for which younger women are at higher risk, increases the risk of ischemic stroke. “With our new risk-prediction tool, we could start identifying those at higher risk, treat their risk factors, and lower their risk of stroke,” said Souvik Sen, MD, MPH, professor and chair of neurology at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, in a press release.

Risk groups significantly discriminated stroke risk

To create the score, Dr. Sen and colleagues examined data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) cohort, which includes community-dwelling people in Forsyth County, N.C.; Jackson, Miss.; Washington County, Md.; and the suburbs of Minneapolis. Researchers have been following the participants since 1987. From this population, Dr. Sen and colleagues identified 429 participants with a history of migraine with aura. Most of these participants were women aged 50-59 years at their first visit. The researchers analyzed the association between potential risk factors and ischemic stroke using Cox proportional hazards analysis.

Of the 429 participants, 31 had an ischemic stroke during a follow-up period of 20 years. Dr. Sen’s group created a risk score by identifying five risk factors for stroke and assigning them points in proportion to their influence (i.e., their regression coefficients). They assigned diabetes mellitus – 7 points; age older than 65 years – 5 points; heart rate variability (i.e., the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals) – 3 points; hypertension – 3 points – and sex – 1 point. Then the researchers calculated risk scores for each patient and defined a low-risk group (from 0-4 points), a moderate-risk group (5-10 points), and a high-risk group (11-21 points).

After 18 years of follow-up, the incidence of stroke was 3% in the low-risk group, 8% in the moderate-risk group, and 34% in the high-risk group. The hazard ratio for ischemic stroke in the high-risk group, compared with the low-risk group, was 7.35. Kaplan Meier curves indicated that the risk-stratification groups significantly discriminated stroke risk among the sample. The risk score should be validated in an independent population cohort, said the investigators.

Dr. Sen and colleagues did not report any funding for this study. Investigators reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health, the American Heart Association, and the American Academy of Neurology.

Score may leave important variables unexamined

One mechanism through which migraine increases the risk of stroke is the constriction of blood vessels, said Louis R. Caplan, MD, professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School in Boston and member of the editorial advisory board of Neurology Reviews. Triptans, which many patients use to treat migraine, also cause vasoconstriction. In addition, migraine increases blood coagulation.

Although the risk score developed by Dr. Sen and colleagues accounts for various comorbidities, it may not apply equally to all patients. “As I understand it, they’re just using migraine with aura as a single factor,” said Dr. Caplan. Variables such as prolonged aura, frequent episodes, and aura-related deficit are associated with increased risk of stroke, but the risk score does not examine these factors.

Patients with severe, long-lasting attacks or attacks that involve weakness or aphasia should receive prophylactic treatment to prevent vasoconstriction, such as verapamil (Verelan), said Dr. Caplan. Antithrombotic agents such as aspirin also may be appropriate prophylaxis. Whether effective treatment of migraine with aura decreases the risk of stroke remains unknown.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Trivedi T et al. ISC 2020. Abstract WMP117.

PHOENIX – More favorable cardiovascular health at 28 weeks’ gestation was associated with lower risks for several adverse maternal and newborn pregnancy outcomes, according to results from a multinational cohort study.

Doug Brunk/MDedge News

“Over the past 10 years, cardiovascular health [CVH] has been characterized across most of the life course and is associated with a variety of health outcomes, but CVH as a whole has not been well studied during pregnancy,” Amanda M. Perak, MD, said at the Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health meeting.

In an effort to examine the associations of maternal gestational CVH with adverse maternal and newborn outcomes, Dr. Perak of the departments of pediatrics and preventive medicine at Northwestern University and Lurie Children’s Hospital, both in Chicago, and colleagues drew from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study, which examined pregnant women at a target of 28 weeks’ gestation and assessed the associations of glycemia with pregnancy outcomes. The researchers analyzed data from an ancillary study of 2,230 mother-child dyads to characterize clinical gestational CVH with use of five metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, and smoking. The study excluded women with prepregnancy diabetes, preterm births, and cases of fetal death/major malformations.

Each maternal CVH metric was classified as ideal, intermediate, or poor according to modified definitions based on pregnancy guidelines. “For lipids, it’s known that levels change substantially during pregnancy, but there are no pregnancy guidelines,” Dr. Perak said. “We and others have also shown that higher triglycerides in pregnancy are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We selected thresholds of less than 250 mg/dL for ideal and at least 500 mg/dL for poor, based on triglyceride distribution and clinical relevance.”

Total CVH was scored by assigning 2 points for ideal, 1 for intermediate, and 0 for each poor metric, for a total possible 10 points, with 10 being most favorable. They also created four CVH categories, ranging from all ideal to two or more poor metrics. Maternal adverse pregnancy outcomes included preeclampsia and unplanned primary cesarean section. Newborn adverse pregnancy outcomes included birth weight above the 90th percentile and a cord blood insulin sensitivity index lower than the 10th percentile.

The researchers used logistic and multinomial logistic regression of pregnancy outcomes on maternal gestational CVH in two adjusted models. Secondarily, they examined associations of individual CVH metrics with outcomes, with adjustment for the other metrics.

The cohort comprised mother-child dyads from nine field centers in six countries: the United States (25%), Barbados (23%), United Kingdom (21%), China (18%), Thailand (7%), and Canada (7%). The mothers’ mean age was 30 years, and the mean gestational age was 28 weeks. The mean gestational CVH score was 8.8 out of 10. Nearly half of mothers (42%) had ideal metrics, while 4% had two or more poor metrics. Delivery occurred at a mean of 39.8 weeks, and adverse pregnancy outcomes occurred in 4.7%-17.9% of pregnancies.

In the fully adjusted model, which accounted for maternal age, height, alcohol use, gestational age at pregnancy exam, maternal parity, and newborn sex and race/ethnicity, odds ratios per 1-point higher (better) CVH score were 0.61 (95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.70) for preeclampsia, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.76-0.95) for unplanned primary cesarean section (among primiparous mothers), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.91) for large for gestational age infant, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87) for infant insulin sensitivity index below the 10th percentile. CVH categories were also associated with outcomes. For example, odds ratios for preeclampsia were 4.61 (95% CI, 2.13-11.14) for mothers with one or more intermediate metrics, 7.62 (95% CI, 3.60-18.13) for mothers with one poor metric, and 12.02 (95% CI, 4.70-32.50) for mothers with two or more poor metrics, compared with mothers with all metrics ideal.

“Except for smoking, each CVH metric was independently associated with adverse outcomes,” Dr. Perak said. “However, total CVH was associated with a wider range of outcomes than any single metric. This suggests that CVH provides health insights beyond single risk factors.”

Strengths of the study, she continued, included geographic and racial diversity of participants and high-quality research measurements of CVH. Limitations were that the cohort excluded prepregnancy diabetes and preterm births. “Diet and exercise data were not available, and CVH was measured once at 28 weeks,” she said. “Further study is needed across pregnancy and in other settings, but this study provides the first data on the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes.”

In an interview, Stephen S. Rich, PhD, who directs the Center for Public Health Genomics at the University of Virginia, said that the data “provide strong epidemiologic support to focus on the full range of cardiovascular health. In my view, the primary limitation of the study is that there may be significant differences in how one achieves ideal CHV across a single country, not to mention across the world, particularly in absence of a highly controlled, research environment. It is not clear that the approach used in this study at nine selected sites in six relatively highly developed countries could be translated into primary care – particularly in the U.S. with different regulatory and reimbursement plans and payers. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests a way to reduce adverse outcomes in pregnancy and the area deserves greater research.”

According to Dr. Perak, gestational diabetes is associated with a twofold higher maternal risk for cardiovascular disease (Diabetologia. 2019;62:905-14), while diabetes is also associated with higher offspring risk for CVD (BMJ. 2019;367:16398). However, a paucity of data exists on gestational CVH. In one report, better gestational CVH was associated with less subclinical CVD for the mother 10 years later (J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Jul 23. doi:10.1161/JAHA.118.011394). In a separate analysis, Dr. Perak and her colleagues found that better gestational CVH was associated with better offspring CVH in childhood. “Unfortunately, we also reported that, among pregnant women in the United States, fewer than 1 in 10 had high CVH,” she said (J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Feb 17. doi:10.1161/JAHA.119.015123). “However, the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes is unknown, but a it’s key question when considering CVH monitoring in prenatal care.”

Dr. Perak reported having received grant support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the American Heart Association, and Northwestern University. The HAPO Study was supported by NHLBI and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

The meeting was sponsored by the American Heart Association.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Perak A et al. Epi/Lifestyle 2020, Abstract 33.

PHOENIX – More favorable cardiovascular health at 28 weeks’ gestation was associated with lower risks for several adverse maternal and newborn pregnancy outcomes, according to results from a multinational cohort study.

Doug Brunk/MDedge News

“Over the past 10 years, cardiovascular health [CVH] has been characterized across most of the life course and is associated with a variety of health outcomes, but CVH as a whole has not been well studied during pregnancy,” Amanda M. Perak, MD, said at the Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health meeting.

In an effort to examine the associations of maternal gestational CVH with adverse maternal and newborn outcomes, Dr. Perak of the departments of pediatrics and preventive medicine at Northwestern University and Lurie Children’s Hospital, both in Chicago, and colleagues drew from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study, which examined pregnant women at a target of 28 weeks’ gestation and assessed the associations of glycemia with pregnancy outcomes. The researchers analyzed data from an ancillary study of 2,230 mother-child dyads to characterize clinical gestational CVH with use of five metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, and smoking. The study excluded women with prepregnancy diabetes, preterm births, and cases of fetal death/major malformations.

Each maternal CVH metric was classified as ideal, intermediate, or poor according to modified definitions based on pregnancy guidelines. “For lipids, it’s known that levels change substantially during pregnancy, but there are no pregnancy guidelines,” Dr. Perak said. “We and others have also shown that higher triglycerides in pregnancy are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We selected thresholds of less than 250 mg/dL for ideal and at least 500 mg/dL for poor, based on triglyceride distribution and clinical relevance.”

Total CVH was scored by assigning 2 points for ideal, 1 for intermediate, and 0 for each poor metric, for a total possible 10 points, with 10 being most favorable. They also created four CVH categories, ranging from all ideal to two or more poor metrics. Maternal adverse pregnancy outcomes included preeclampsia and unplanned primary cesarean section. Newborn adverse pregnancy outcomes included birth weight above the 90th percentile and a cord blood insulin sensitivity index lower than the 10th percentile.

The researchers used logistic and multinomial logistic regression of pregnancy outcomes on maternal gestational CVH in two adjusted models. Secondarily, they examined associations of individual CVH metrics with outcomes, with adjustment for the other metrics.

The cohort comprised mother-child dyads from nine field centers in six countries: the United States (25%), Barbados (23%), United Kingdom (21%), China (18%), Thailand (7%), and Canada (7%). The mothers’ mean age was 30 years, and the mean gestational age was 28 weeks. The mean gestational CVH score was 8.8 out of 10. Nearly half of mothers (42%) had ideal metrics, while 4% had two or more poor metrics. Delivery occurred at a mean of 39.8 weeks, and adverse pregnancy outcomes occurred in 4.7%-17.9% of pregnancies.

In the fully adjusted model, which accounted for maternal age, height, alcohol use, gestational age at pregnancy exam, maternal parity, and newborn sex and race/ethnicity, odds ratios per 1-point higher (better) CVH score were 0.61 (95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.70) for preeclampsia, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.76-0.95) for unplanned primary cesarean section (among primiparous mothers), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.91) for large for gestational age infant, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87) for infant insulin sensitivity index below the 10th percentile. CVH categories were also associated with outcomes. For example, odds ratios for preeclampsia were 4.61 (95% CI, 2.13-11.14) for mothers with one or more intermediate metrics, 7.62 (95% CI, 3.60-18.13) for mothers with one poor metric, and 12.02 (95% CI, 4.70-32.50) for mothers with two or more poor metrics, compared with mothers with all metrics ideal.

“Except for smoking, each CVH metric was independently associated with adverse outcomes,” Dr. Perak said. “However, total CVH was associated with a wider range of outcomes than any single metric. This suggests that CVH provides health insights beyond single risk factors.”

Strengths of the study, she continued, included geographic and racial diversity of participants and high-quality research measurements of CVH. Limitations were that the cohort excluded prepregnancy diabetes and preterm births. “Diet and exercise data were not available, and CVH was measured once at 28 weeks,” she said. “Further study is needed across pregnancy and in other settings, but this study provides the first data on the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes.”

In an interview, Stephen S. Rich, PhD, who directs the Center for Public Health Genomics at the University of Virginia, said that the data “provide strong epidemiologic support to focus on the full range of cardiovascular health. In my view, the primary limitation of the study is that there may be significant differences in how one achieves ideal CHV across a single country, not to mention across the world, particularly in absence of a highly controlled, research environment. It is not clear that the approach used in this study at nine selected sites in six relatively highly developed countries could be translated into primary care – particularly in the U.S. with different regulatory and reimbursement plans and payers. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests a way to reduce adverse outcomes in pregnancy and the area deserves greater research.”

According to Dr. Perak, gestational diabetes is associated with a twofold higher maternal risk for cardiovascular disease (Diabetologia. 2019;62:905-14), while diabetes is also associated with higher offspring risk for CVD (BMJ. 2019;367:16398). However, a paucity of data exists on gestational CVH. In one report, better gestational CVH was associated with less subclinical CVD for the mother 10 years later (J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Jul 23. doi:10.1161/JAHA.118.011394). In a separate analysis, Dr. Perak and her colleagues found that better gestational CVH was associated with better offspring CVH in childhood. “Unfortunately, we also reported that, among pregnant women in the United States, fewer than 1 in 10 had high CVH,” she said (J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Feb 17. doi:10.1161/JAHA.119.015123). “However, the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes is unknown, but a it’s key question when considering CVH monitoring in prenatal care.”

Dr. Perak reported having received grant support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the American Heart Association, and Northwestern University. The HAPO Study was supported by NHLBI and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

The meeting was sponsored by the American Heart Association.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Perak A et al. Epi/Lifestyle 2020, Abstract 33.

PHOENIX – More favorable cardiovascular health at 28 weeks’ gestation was associated with lower risks for several adverse maternal and newborn pregnancy outcomes, according to results from a multinational cohort study.

Doug Brunk/MDedge News

“Over the past 10 years, cardiovascular health [CVH] has been characterized across most of the life course and is associated with a variety of health outcomes, but CVH as a whole has not been well studied during pregnancy,” Amanda M. Perak, MD, said at the Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health meeting.

In an effort to examine the associations of maternal gestational CVH with adverse maternal and newborn outcomes, Dr. Perak of the departments of pediatrics and preventive medicine at Northwestern University and Lurie Children’s Hospital, both in Chicago, and colleagues drew from the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study, which examined pregnant women at a target of 28 weeks’ gestation and assessed the associations of glycemia with pregnancy outcomes. The researchers analyzed data from an ancillary study of 2,230 mother-child dyads to characterize clinical gestational CVH with use of five metrics: body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, and smoking. The study excluded women with prepregnancy diabetes, preterm births, and cases of fetal death/major malformations.

Each maternal CVH metric was classified as ideal, intermediate, or poor according to modified definitions based on pregnancy guidelines. “For lipids, it’s known that levels change substantially during pregnancy, but there are no pregnancy guidelines,” Dr. Perak said. “We and others have also shown that higher triglycerides in pregnancy are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We selected thresholds of less than 250 mg/dL for ideal and at least 500 mg/dL for poor, based on triglyceride distribution and clinical relevance.”

Total CVH was scored by assigning 2 points for ideal, 1 for intermediate, and 0 for each poor metric, for a total possible 10 points, with 10 being most favorable. They also created four CVH categories, ranging from all ideal to two or more poor metrics. Maternal adverse pregnancy outcomes included preeclampsia and unplanned primary cesarean section. Newborn adverse pregnancy outcomes included birth weight above the 90th percentile and a cord blood insulin sensitivity index lower than the 10th percentile.

The researchers used logistic and multinomial logistic regression of pregnancy outcomes on maternal gestational CVH in two adjusted models. Secondarily, they examined associations of individual CVH metrics with outcomes, with adjustment for the other metrics.

The cohort comprised mother-child dyads from nine field centers in six countries: the United States (25%), Barbados (23%), United Kingdom (21%), China (18%), Thailand (7%), and Canada (7%). The mothers’ mean age was 30 years, and the mean gestational age was 28 weeks. The mean gestational CVH score was 8.8 out of 10. Nearly half of mothers (42%) had ideal metrics, while 4% had two or more poor metrics. Delivery occurred at a mean of 39.8 weeks, and adverse pregnancy outcomes occurred in 4.7%-17.9% of pregnancies.

In the fully adjusted model, which accounted for maternal age, height, alcohol use, gestational age at pregnancy exam, maternal parity, and newborn sex and race/ethnicity, odds ratios per 1-point higher (better) CVH score were 0.61 (95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.70) for preeclampsia, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.76-0.95) for unplanned primary cesarean section (among primiparous mothers), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.91) for large for gestational age infant, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87) for infant insulin sensitivity index below the 10th percentile. CVH categories were also associated with outcomes. For example, odds ratios for preeclampsia were 4.61 (95% CI, 2.13-11.14) for mothers with one or more intermediate metrics, 7.62 (95% CI, 3.60-18.13) for mothers with one poor metric, and 12.02 (95% CI, 4.70-32.50) for mothers with two or more poor metrics, compared with mothers with all metrics ideal.

“Except for smoking, each CVH metric was independently associated with adverse outcomes,” Dr. Perak said. “However, total CVH was associated with a wider range of outcomes than any single metric. This suggests that CVH provides health insights beyond single risk factors.”

Strengths of the study, she continued, included geographic and racial diversity of participants and high-quality research measurements of CVH. Limitations were that the cohort excluded prepregnancy diabetes and preterm births. “Diet and exercise data were not available, and CVH was measured once at 28 weeks,” she said. “Further study is needed across pregnancy and in other settings, but this study provides the first data on the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes.”

In an interview, Stephen S. Rich, PhD, who directs the Center for Public Health Genomics at the University of Virginia, said that the data “provide strong epidemiologic support to focus on the full range of cardiovascular health. In my view, the primary limitation of the study is that there may be significant differences in how one achieves ideal CHV across a single country, not to mention across the world, particularly in absence of a highly controlled, research environment. It is not clear that the approach used in this study at nine selected sites in six relatively highly developed countries could be translated into primary care – particularly in the U.S. with different regulatory and reimbursement plans and payers. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests a way to reduce adverse outcomes in pregnancy and the area deserves greater research.”

According to Dr. Perak, gestational diabetes is associated with a twofold higher maternal risk for cardiovascular disease (Diabetologia. 2019;62:905-14), while diabetes is also associated with higher offspring risk for CVD (BMJ. 2019;367:16398). However, a paucity of data exists on gestational CVH. In one report, better gestational CVH was associated with less subclinical CVD for the mother 10 years later (J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Jul 23. doi:10.1161/JAHA.118.011394). In a separate analysis, Dr. Perak and her colleagues found that better gestational CVH was associated with better offspring CVH in childhood. “Unfortunately, we also reported that, among pregnant women in the United States, fewer than 1 in 10 had high CVH,” she said (J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Feb 17. doi:10.1161/JAHA.119.015123). “However, the relevance of gestational CVH for pregnancy outcomes is unknown, but a it’s key question when considering CVH monitoring in prenatal care.”

Dr. Perak reported having received grant support from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the American Heart Association, and Northwestern University. The HAPO Study was supported by NHLBI and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

The meeting was sponsored by the American Heart Association.

[email protected]

SOURCE: Perak A et al. Epi/Lifestyle 2020, Abstract 33.

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The “Flattening the Curve” graphic, which has, to not use the term lightly, gone viral on social media, visually explains the best currently available strategy to stop the COVID-19 spread, experts told Medscape Medical News.

The height of the curve is the number of potential cases in the United States; along the horizontal X axis, or the breadth, is the amount of time. The line across the middle represents the point at which too many cases in too short a time overwhelm the healthcare system.
 

When you think of large numbers of people becoming newly infected and potentially very sick, you’d like them to come into emergency departments and intensive care units four or five at a time and not 30 at a time, Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, MPH, director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham’s School of Medicine explained.

“Not only are you spreading out the new cases but the rate at which people recover,” she told Medscape Medical News. “You have time to get people out of the hospital so you can get new people in and clear out those beds.”

The strategy, with its own Twitter hashtag, #Flattenthecurve, “is about all we have,” without a vaccine, Marrazzo said.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said avoiding spikes in cases could mean fewer deaths.

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, you know, they go big peaks, and then they come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Fauci said March 10 in a White House briefing. “You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”

Wuhan, China, at the epicenter of the pandemic, “had an explosive curve” and quickly got overwhelmed without early containment measures, Marrazzo noted. “If you look at Italy right now, it’s clearly in the same situation.”
 

The Race Is On to Interrupt the Spread

The race is on in the US to interrupt the transmission of the virus and slow the spread, meaning containment measures have increasingly higher and wider stakes.

Closing down Broadway shows and some theme parks and massive sporting events; the escalating numbers of people working from home; and businesses cutting hours or closing all demonstrate the level of US confidence that “social distancing” will work, Marrazzo said.

“We’re clearly ready to disrupt the economy and social infrastructure,” she said.

That appears to have made a difference in Wuhan, Marrazzo said, as the new infections are coming down.

The question, she said, is “we’re not China – so are Americans really going to take to this? Americans greatly value their liberty and there’s some skepticism about public health and its directives. People have never seen a pandemic like this before.”

Dena Grayson, MD, PhD, a Florida-based expert in Ebola and other pandemic threats, told Medscape Medical News that EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, Washington, is a good example of what it means when a virus overwhelms healthcare operations.

The New York Times reported that supplies were so strained at the facility that staff were using sanitary napkins to pad protective helmets.

As of March 11, 65 people who had come into the hospital have tested positive for the virus, and 15 of them had died.

Grayson points out that the COVID-19 cases come on top of a severe flu season and the usual cases hospitals see, so the bar on the graphic is even lower than it usually would be.

“We have a relatively limited capacity with ICU beds to begin with,” she said.

So far, closures, postponements, and cancellations are woefully inadequate, Grayson said.

“We can’t stop this virus. We can hope to contain it and slow down the rate of infection,” she said.

“We need to right now shut down all the schools, preschools, and universities,” Grayson said. “We need to look at shutting down public transportation. We need people to stay home – and not for a day but for a couple of weeks.”

The graphic was developed by visual-data journalist Rosamund Pearce, based on a graphic that had appeared in a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) article titled “Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza,” the Times reports.

Marrazzo and Grayson have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
 

This story first appeared on Medscape.com .

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The “Flattening the Curve” graphic, which has, to not use the term lightly, gone viral on social media, visually explains the best currently available strategy to stop the COVID-19 spread, experts told Medscape Medical News.

The height of the curve is the number of potential cases in the United States; along the horizontal X axis, or the breadth, is the amount of time. The line across the middle represents the point at which too many cases in too short a time overwhelm the healthcare system.
 

When you think of large numbers of people becoming newly infected and potentially very sick, you’d like them to come into emergency departments and intensive care units four or five at a time and not 30 at a time, Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, MPH, director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham’s School of Medicine explained.

“Not only are you spreading out the new cases but the rate at which people recover,” she told Medscape Medical News. “You have time to get people out of the hospital so you can get new people in and clear out those beds.”

The strategy, with its own Twitter hashtag, #Flattenthecurve, “is about all we have,” without a vaccine, Marrazzo said.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said avoiding spikes in cases could mean fewer deaths.

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, you know, they go big peaks, and then they come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Fauci said March 10 in a White House briefing. “You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”

Wuhan, China, at the epicenter of the pandemic, “had an explosive curve” and quickly got overwhelmed without early containment measures, Marrazzo noted. “If you look at Italy right now, it’s clearly in the same situation.”
 

The Race Is On to Interrupt the Spread

The race is on in the US to interrupt the transmission of the virus and slow the spread, meaning containment measures have increasingly higher and wider stakes.

Closing down Broadway shows and some theme parks and massive sporting events; the escalating numbers of people working from home; and businesses cutting hours or closing all demonstrate the level of US confidence that “social distancing” will work, Marrazzo said.

“We’re clearly ready to disrupt the economy and social infrastructure,” she said.

That appears to have made a difference in Wuhan, Marrazzo said, as the new infections are coming down.

The question, she said, is “we’re not China – so are Americans really going to take to this? Americans greatly value their liberty and there’s some skepticism about public health and its directives. People have never seen a pandemic like this before.”

Dena Grayson, MD, PhD, a Florida-based expert in Ebola and other pandemic threats, told Medscape Medical News that EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, Washington, is a good example of what it means when a virus overwhelms healthcare operations.

The New York Times reported that supplies were so strained at the facility that staff were using sanitary napkins to pad protective helmets.

As of March 11, 65 people who had come into the hospital have tested positive for the virus, and 15 of them had died.

Grayson points out that the COVID-19 cases come on top of a severe flu season and the usual cases hospitals see, so the bar on the graphic is even lower than it usually would be.

“We have a relatively limited capacity with ICU beds to begin with,” she said.

So far, closures, postponements, and cancellations are woefully inadequate, Grayson said.

“We can’t stop this virus. We can hope to contain it and slow down the rate of infection,” she said.

“We need to right now shut down all the schools, preschools, and universities,” Grayson said. “We need to look at shutting down public transportation. We need people to stay home – and not for a day but for a couple of weeks.”

The graphic was developed by visual-data journalist Rosamund Pearce, based on a graphic that had appeared in a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) article titled “Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza,” the Times reports.

Marrazzo and Grayson have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
 

This story first appeared on Medscape.com .

Editor’s note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape’s Coronavirus Resource Center.

The “Flattening the Curve” graphic, which has, to not use the term lightly, gone viral on social media, visually explains the best currently available strategy to stop the COVID-19 spread, experts told Medscape Medical News.

The height of the curve is the number of potential cases in the United States; along the horizontal X axis, or the breadth, is the amount of time. The line across the middle represents the point at which too many cases in too short a time overwhelm the healthcare system.
 

When you think of large numbers of people becoming newly infected and potentially very sick, you’d like them to come into emergency departments and intensive care units four or five at a time and not 30 at a time, Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, MPH, director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham’s School of Medicine explained.

“Not only are you spreading out the new cases but the rate at which people recover,” she told Medscape Medical News. “You have time to get people out of the hospital so you can get new people in and clear out those beds.”

The strategy, with its own Twitter hashtag, #Flattenthecurve, “is about all we have,” without a vaccine, Marrazzo said.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said avoiding spikes in cases could mean fewer deaths.

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, you know, they go big peaks, and then they come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Fauci said March 10 in a White House briefing. “You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”

Wuhan, China, at the epicenter of the pandemic, “had an explosive curve” and quickly got overwhelmed without early containment measures, Marrazzo noted. “If you look at Italy right now, it’s clearly in the same situation.”
 

The Race Is On to Interrupt the Spread

The race is on in the US to interrupt the transmission of the virus and slow the spread, meaning containment measures have increasingly higher and wider stakes.

Closing down Broadway shows and some theme parks and massive sporting events; the escalating numbers of people working from home; and businesses cutting hours or closing all demonstrate the level of US confidence that “social distancing” will work, Marrazzo said.

“We’re clearly ready to disrupt the economy and social infrastructure,” she said.

That appears to have made a difference in Wuhan, Marrazzo said, as the new infections are coming down.

The question, she said, is “we’re not China – so are Americans really going to take to this? Americans greatly value their liberty and there’s some skepticism about public health and its directives. People have never seen a pandemic like this before.”

Dena Grayson, MD, PhD, a Florida-based expert in Ebola and other pandemic threats, told Medscape Medical News that EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, Washington, is a good example of what it means when a virus overwhelms healthcare operations.

The New York Times reported that supplies were so strained at the facility that staff were using sanitary napkins to pad protective helmets.

As of March 11, 65 people who had come into the hospital have tested positive for the virus, and 15 of them had died.

Grayson points out that the COVID-19 cases come on top of a severe flu season and the usual cases hospitals see, so the bar on the graphic is even lower than it usually would be.

“We have a relatively limited capacity with ICU beds to begin with,” she said.

So far, closures, postponements, and cancellations are woefully inadequate, Grayson said.

“We can’t stop this virus. We can hope to contain it and slow down the rate of infection,” she said.

“We need to right now shut down all the schools, preschools, and universities,” Grayson said. “We need to look at shutting down public transportation. We need people to stay home – and not for a day but for a couple of weeks.”

The graphic was developed by visual-data journalist Rosamund Pearce, based on a graphic that had appeared in a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) article titled “Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza,” the Times reports.

Marrazzo and Grayson have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
 

This story first appeared on Medscape.com .