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CHICAGO– The Stalking Risk Profile, a tool designed to access recidivism risk, is effective in predicting the potential for future stalking in offenders. In an analysis of 230 stalkers, more than 1 in 3 with a high SRP score went on to stalk the same victim again, while fewer than 1 in 10 with a low SRP score stalked again, research presented at the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law annual meeting showed.
“For us, this is really positive because it shows that the tool does work,” said Troy McEwan, D.Psych., a Melbourne-based forensic psychologist and lecturer for the Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science at Swinburne University of Technology. “It doesn’t mean if you are high risk that you are going to reoffend,” Dr. McEwan added at the AAPL meeting, “it means you reoffend at a higher base rate.”
The SRP is a structured, professional judgment tool developed by Dr. McEwan and several colleagues that accesses and manages risk in stalking cases. The tool measures whether a stalker will continue stalking, start stalking again once having stopped, and/or become violent in the context of stalking. SRP scores range from low to moderate to high.
The tool is structured differently from most risk assessment tools, said Dr. McEwan, who also practices at the Problem Behaviour Program at the Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health, Fairfield, Australia, known as Forensicare. Rather than approaching all offenders similarly and applying the same risk factors to all stalkers, the test identifies risk factors relevant to different stalker types. For instance, when accessing a rejected ex-partner for future violence, key risk factors include prior violence and threats. Additionally, having shared children is a unique risk factor for stalking recidivism among rejected ex-partners. However, for intimacy-seeking stalkers who pursue strangers, prior violence and paranoid ideation are specific risk factors to future violence, while erotomania is a factor in this group’s recidivism risk.
For the study, investigators administered the SRP to patients referred to Forensicare’s Problem Behaviour Program for stalking between 2010 and 2013 and also applied the tool retrospectively to clients assessed for stalking during 2004-2007. Of the 230 subjects, 51% had stalked an ex-partner, 33% had stalked an acquaintance, and 16% had stalked a stranger. Researchers followed up with police for subsequent charging data in July 2014. Of the subjects, 26.5% stalked again. About 14% stalked the same victim, 13.5% stalked a different victim, and 3% stalked the same and a different victim, according to research data.
Of a 16% base rate prevalence of reoffending against the same victim, fewer than 1 in 10 subjects with a low SRP went on to reoffend against the same victim, results found; more than 1 in 3 of those with a high SRP score went on to reoffend against the same victim. Of a 14% base rate prevalence of reoffending against a different victim, fewer than 1 in 10 of subjects went on to reoffend against a new victim, while about 1 in 3 of high SRP scorers pursued a new victim.
In addition, the reliability that individual evaluators would reach the same or similar SRP scores was high, the study found. The study found also a 72% probability that stalkers who reoffend against the same victim will score higher on the SRP than do stalkers who do not reoffend against the same victim. A 69% probability exists that a stalker who reoffends against a different victim will get a higher SRP score than would a subject who does not reoffend against a different victim.
The findings show the SRP is a strong and depending tool for measuring future stalking, Dr. McEwan said. The measurement enables clinicians to better target stalking interventions compared with general tools such as the The Historical Clinical Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), she noted.
“Essentially, it means we can use (the SRP) reliably, which is really positive,” she said at the meeting. “It means it does discriminate against offenders and non-offenders, and it does predict who is going to reoffend fairly well.”
Dr. McEwan reported no financial conflicts of interest.
On Twitter @legal_med
CHICAGO– The Stalking Risk Profile, a tool designed to access recidivism risk, is effective in predicting the potential for future stalking in offenders. In an analysis of 230 stalkers, more than 1 in 3 with a high SRP score went on to stalk the same victim again, while fewer than 1 in 10 with a low SRP score stalked again, research presented at the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law annual meeting showed.
“For us, this is really positive because it shows that the tool does work,” said Troy McEwan, D.Psych., a Melbourne-based forensic psychologist and lecturer for the Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science at Swinburne University of Technology. “It doesn’t mean if you are high risk that you are going to reoffend,” Dr. McEwan added at the AAPL meeting, “it means you reoffend at a higher base rate.”
The SRP is a structured, professional judgment tool developed by Dr. McEwan and several colleagues that accesses and manages risk in stalking cases. The tool measures whether a stalker will continue stalking, start stalking again once having stopped, and/or become violent in the context of stalking. SRP scores range from low to moderate to high.
The tool is structured differently from most risk assessment tools, said Dr. McEwan, who also practices at the Problem Behaviour Program at the Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health, Fairfield, Australia, known as Forensicare. Rather than approaching all offenders similarly and applying the same risk factors to all stalkers, the test identifies risk factors relevant to different stalker types. For instance, when accessing a rejected ex-partner for future violence, key risk factors include prior violence and threats. Additionally, having shared children is a unique risk factor for stalking recidivism among rejected ex-partners. However, for intimacy-seeking stalkers who pursue strangers, prior violence and paranoid ideation are specific risk factors to future violence, while erotomania is a factor in this group’s recidivism risk.
For the study, investigators administered the SRP to patients referred to Forensicare’s Problem Behaviour Program for stalking between 2010 and 2013 and also applied the tool retrospectively to clients assessed for stalking during 2004-2007. Of the 230 subjects, 51% had stalked an ex-partner, 33% had stalked an acquaintance, and 16% had stalked a stranger. Researchers followed up with police for subsequent charging data in July 2014. Of the subjects, 26.5% stalked again. About 14% stalked the same victim, 13.5% stalked a different victim, and 3% stalked the same and a different victim, according to research data.
Of a 16% base rate prevalence of reoffending against the same victim, fewer than 1 in 10 subjects with a low SRP went on to reoffend against the same victim, results found; more than 1 in 3 of those with a high SRP score went on to reoffend against the same victim. Of a 14% base rate prevalence of reoffending against a different victim, fewer than 1 in 10 of subjects went on to reoffend against a new victim, while about 1 in 3 of high SRP scorers pursued a new victim.
In addition, the reliability that individual evaluators would reach the same or similar SRP scores was high, the study found. The study found also a 72% probability that stalkers who reoffend against the same victim will score higher on the SRP than do stalkers who do not reoffend against the same victim. A 69% probability exists that a stalker who reoffends against a different victim will get a higher SRP score than would a subject who does not reoffend against a different victim.
The findings show the SRP is a strong and depending tool for measuring future stalking, Dr. McEwan said. The measurement enables clinicians to better target stalking interventions compared with general tools such as the The Historical Clinical Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), she noted.
“Essentially, it means we can use (the SRP) reliably, which is really positive,” she said at the meeting. “It means it does discriminate against offenders and non-offenders, and it does predict who is going to reoffend fairly well.”
Dr. McEwan reported no financial conflicts of interest.
On Twitter @legal_med
CHICAGO– The Stalking Risk Profile, a tool designed to access recidivism risk, is effective in predicting the potential for future stalking in offenders. In an analysis of 230 stalkers, more than 1 in 3 with a high SRP score went on to stalk the same victim again, while fewer than 1 in 10 with a low SRP score stalked again, research presented at the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law annual meeting showed.
“For us, this is really positive because it shows that the tool does work,” said Troy McEwan, D.Psych., a Melbourne-based forensic psychologist and lecturer for the Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science at Swinburne University of Technology. “It doesn’t mean if you are high risk that you are going to reoffend,” Dr. McEwan added at the AAPL meeting, “it means you reoffend at a higher base rate.”
The SRP is a structured, professional judgment tool developed by Dr. McEwan and several colleagues that accesses and manages risk in stalking cases. The tool measures whether a stalker will continue stalking, start stalking again once having stopped, and/or become violent in the context of stalking. SRP scores range from low to moderate to high.
The tool is structured differently from most risk assessment tools, said Dr. McEwan, who also practices at the Problem Behaviour Program at the Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health, Fairfield, Australia, known as Forensicare. Rather than approaching all offenders similarly and applying the same risk factors to all stalkers, the test identifies risk factors relevant to different stalker types. For instance, when accessing a rejected ex-partner for future violence, key risk factors include prior violence and threats. Additionally, having shared children is a unique risk factor for stalking recidivism among rejected ex-partners. However, for intimacy-seeking stalkers who pursue strangers, prior violence and paranoid ideation are specific risk factors to future violence, while erotomania is a factor in this group’s recidivism risk.
For the study, investigators administered the SRP to patients referred to Forensicare’s Problem Behaviour Program for stalking between 2010 and 2013 and also applied the tool retrospectively to clients assessed for stalking during 2004-2007. Of the 230 subjects, 51% had stalked an ex-partner, 33% had stalked an acquaintance, and 16% had stalked a stranger. Researchers followed up with police for subsequent charging data in July 2014. Of the subjects, 26.5% stalked again. About 14% stalked the same victim, 13.5% stalked a different victim, and 3% stalked the same and a different victim, according to research data.
Of a 16% base rate prevalence of reoffending against the same victim, fewer than 1 in 10 subjects with a low SRP went on to reoffend against the same victim, results found; more than 1 in 3 of those with a high SRP score went on to reoffend against the same victim. Of a 14% base rate prevalence of reoffending against a different victim, fewer than 1 in 10 of subjects went on to reoffend against a new victim, while about 1 in 3 of high SRP scorers pursued a new victim.
In addition, the reliability that individual evaluators would reach the same or similar SRP scores was high, the study found. The study found also a 72% probability that stalkers who reoffend against the same victim will score higher on the SRP than do stalkers who do not reoffend against the same victim. A 69% probability exists that a stalker who reoffends against a different victim will get a higher SRP score than would a subject who does not reoffend against a different victim.
The findings show the SRP is a strong and depending tool for measuring future stalking, Dr. McEwan said. The measurement enables clinicians to better target stalking interventions compared with general tools such as the The Historical Clinical Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), she noted.
“Essentially, it means we can use (the SRP) reliably, which is really positive,” she said at the meeting. “It means it does discriminate against offenders and non-offenders, and it does predict who is going to reoffend fairly well.”
Dr. McEwan reported no financial conflicts of interest.
On Twitter @legal_med
AT THE ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF PSYCHIATRY AND THE LAW
Key clinical point: The Stalker Risk Profile successfully predicts future stalking against same and new victims.
Major finding: In an analysis of 230 stalkers, more than 1 in 3 with a high SRP score went on to stalk the same victim again, while fewer than 1 in 10 with a low SRP score. This was based on a 16% base rate prevalence of reoffending against the same victim, and a 14% base rate prevalence of reoffending against a different victim.
Data source: Case study of prior offenders.
Disclosures: Dr. McEwan reported no financial conflicts of interest.
