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WASHINGTON – The nation’s health bill is slated to continue to grow slowly through the end of this year, but that trend is not attributable to the Affordable Care Act. By 2022, the ACA is expected to cut the number of uninsured by 30 million, but also add about 0.1% to the nation’s health tab each year, adding up to an additional $621 billion over the next decade, according to an annual estimate of trends in health spending by analysts from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in Health Affairs (doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0721).
In 2012 spending overall grew only 3.9%, to $2.8 trillion. Spending is likely to stay under 4% in 2013, in line with the historically low rate of growth seen over the past few years.
The decrease in health spending cannot be attributed to the Affordable Care Act, which became law in 2010, they said.
"In our projections, we have incorporated some modest savings regarding delivery system reforms; however, at this time it’s a little too early to tell how substantial those savings will be in the longer term," Gigi Cuckler, an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary, told reporters.
The most recent downturn in spending is driven by bigger trends. What has been seen over the past 50 years is that when the economy shrinks, so does health spending, said Ms. Cuckler. When the economy recovers, health care spending grows.
"Until we see evidence that relationship has been broken, it’s very difficult for us to conclude that something structural has occurred," said Stephen Heffler, also of the Office of the Actuary at the CMS.
Medicare spending grew by 4.6% in 2012, down from 6.2% growth in 2011. Factors included lower spending on skilled nursing facilities; lower spending on prescriptions drugs such as Plavix (clopidogrel), which went off-patent; and lower payments to some providers mandated by the ACA.
This year, Medicare spending will grow even more slowly, in part from a continued slowdown in spending on hospitals and physicians. The automatic 2% spending from sequestration will also play a role.
Medicaid spending grew just over 2% in 2012, in part because the federal government reduced its matching rate and states employed cost-containment efforts. Medicaid is expected to grow by almost 5% in 2013, partly because primary care physicians were being paid at the higher rate.
In 2014, when millions are expected to gain coverage through the ACA, health spending is expected to grow by 6% – almost 2% faster than expected if the law were not in effect. The main spending drivers in 2014 will be growth in Medicaid and growth in private health insurance.
There is a projected 7% increase in spending on physician services in 2014 – compared to just under 5% in 2012 and around 4% in 2013. That 7% figure would drop to a little under 5% if Congress allows the scheduled 25% cut in physician payments – mandated by the SGR – in January.
WASHINGTON – The nation’s health bill is slated to continue to grow slowly through the end of this year, but that trend is not attributable to the Affordable Care Act. By 2022, the ACA is expected to cut the number of uninsured by 30 million, but also add about 0.1% to the nation’s health tab each year, adding up to an additional $621 billion over the next decade, according to an annual estimate of trends in health spending by analysts from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in Health Affairs (doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0721).
In 2012 spending overall grew only 3.9%, to $2.8 trillion. Spending is likely to stay under 4% in 2013, in line with the historically low rate of growth seen over the past few years.
The decrease in health spending cannot be attributed to the Affordable Care Act, which became law in 2010, they said.
"In our projections, we have incorporated some modest savings regarding delivery system reforms; however, at this time it’s a little too early to tell how substantial those savings will be in the longer term," Gigi Cuckler, an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary, told reporters.
The most recent downturn in spending is driven by bigger trends. What has been seen over the past 50 years is that when the economy shrinks, so does health spending, said Ms. Cuckler. When the economy recovers, health care spending grows.
"Until we see evidence that relationship has been broken, it’s very difficult for us to conclude that something structural has occurred," said Stephen Heffler, also of the Office of the Actuary at the CMS.
Medicare spending grew by 4.6% in 2012, down from 6.2% growth in 2011. Factors included lower spending on skilled nursing facilities; lower spending on prescriptions drugs such as Plavix (clopidogrel), which went off-patent; and lower payments to some providers mandated by the ACA.
This year, Medicare spending will grow even more slowly, in part from a continued slowdown in spending on hospitals and physicians. The automatic 2% spending from sequestration will also play a role.
Medicaid spending grew just over 2% in 2012, in part because the federal government reduced its matching rate and states employed cost-containment efforts. Medicaid is expected to grow by almost 5% in 2013, partly because primary care physicians were being paid at the higher rate.
In 2014, when millions are expected to gain coverage through the ACA, health spending is expected to grow by 6% – almost 2% faster than expected if the law were not in effect. The main spending drivers in 2014 will be growth in Medicaid and growth in private health insurance.
There is a projected 7% increase in spending on physician services in 2014 – compared to just under 5% in 2012 and around 4% in 2013. That 7% figure would drop to a little under 5% if Congress allows the scheduled 25% cut in physician payments – mandated by the SGR – in January.
WASHINGTON – The nation’s health bill is slated to continue to grow slowly through the end of this year, but that trend is not attributable to the Affordable Care Act. By 2022, the ACA is expected to cut the number of uninsured by 30 million, but also add about 0.1% to the nation’s health tab each year, adding up to an additional $621 billion over the next decade, according to an annual estimate of trends in health spending by analysts from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in Health Affairs (doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0721).
In 2012 spending overall grew only 3.9%, to $2.8 trillion. Spending is likely to stay under 4% in 2013, in line with the historically low rate of growth seen over the past few years.
The decrease in health spending cannot be attributed to the Affordable Care Act, which became law in 2010, they said.
"In our projections, we have incorporated some modest savings regarding delivery system reforms; however, at this time it’s a little too early to tell how substantial those savings will be in the longer term," Gigi Cuckler, an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary, told reporters.
The most recent downturn in spending is driven by bigger trends. What has been seen over the past 50 years is that when the economy shrinks, so does health spending, said Ms. Cuckler. When the economy recovers, health care spending grows.
"Until we see evidence that relationship has been broken, it’s very difficult for us to conclude that something structural has occurred," said Stephen Heffler, also of the Office of the Actuary at the CMS.
Medicare spending grew by 4.6% in 2012, down from 6.2% growth in 2011. Factors included lower spending on skilled nursing facilities; lower spending on prescriptions drugs such as Plavix (clopidogrel), which went off-patent; and lower payments to some providers mandated by the ACA.
This year, Medicare spending will grow even more slowly, in part from a continued slowdown in spending on hospitals and physicians. The automatic 2% spending from sequestration will also play a role.
Medicaid spending grew just over 2% in 2012, in part because the federal government reduced its matching rate and states employed cost-containment efforts. Medicaid is expected to grow by almost 5% in 2013, partly because primary care physicians were being paid at the higher rate.
In 2014, when millions are expected to gain coverage through the ACA, health spending is expected to grow by 6% – almost 2% faster than expected if the law were not in effect. The main spending drivers in 2014 will be growth in Medicaid and growth in private health insurance.
There is a projected 7% increase in spending on physician services in 2014 – compared to just under 5% in 2012 and around 4% in 2013. That 7% figure would drop to a little under 5% if Congress allows the scheduled 25% cut in physician payments – mandated by the SGR – in January.