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Credit: James Gathany
New research indicates that, toward the end of the century, climate change may make tropical highland regions suitable breeding grounds for malaria. And this could greatly increase the incidence of the disease.
Scientists compared the latest predictions for global warming with a range of statistical models commonly used to predict the spread of malaria.
And the models suggested that the changing climate will allow malaria to move into higher altitudes during warmer seasons and become permanently resident in larger areas.
This would mainly affect Africa but would also have an impact in Asia and South America.
In eastern Africa, the change could result in an additional 100 million people being exposed to malaria by the end of the 2080s, the researchers calculated.
However, they noted that the size of the impact is highly variable, as it can be affected by a number of factors.
“[W]e expect increased urbanization in these areas over the next 70 years,” said study author Cyril Caminade, PhD, of the University of Liverpool in the UK.
“Other developments, such as land use changes, population movements, and economic growth, will also have to be accounted for in future studies. What is clear is that diseases such as malaria are going to be moving, and this is a crucial element of how we prepare for the effects of climate change.”
The comparison of these models has not been carried out before, and by doing so, the researchers were able to find that malaria spreading to tropical highland areas was the one area in which the models agreed.
There was distinct variation in other parts of the world. Two of the models predicted that malaria would move northward, eventually spreading into Europe, Russia, and North America. Others showed that malaria would move north, but only as far as North Africa, where it was eliminated in the 20th century.
Credit: James Gathany
New research indicates that, toward the end of the century, climate change may make tropical highland regions suitable breeding grounds for malaria. And this could greatly increase the incidence of the disease.
Scientists compared the latest predictions for global warming with a range of statistical models commonly used to predict the spread of malaria.
And the models suggested that the changing climate will allow malaria to move into higher altitudes during warmer seasons and become permanently resident in larger areas.
This would mainly affect Africa but would also have an impact in Asia and South America.
In eastern Africa, the change could result in an additional 100 million people being exposed to malaria by the end of the 2080s, the researchers calculated.
However, they noted that the size of the impact is highly variable, as it can be affected by a number of factors.
“[W]e expect increased urbanization in these areas over the next 70 years,” said study author Cyril Caminade, PhD, of the University of Liverpool in the UK.
“Other developments, such as land use changes, population movements, and economic growth, will also have to be accounted for in future studies. What is clear is that diseases such as malaria are going to be moving, and this is a crucial element of how we prepare for the effects of climate change.”
The comparison of these models has not been carried out before, and by doing so, the researchers were able to find that malaria spreading to tropical highland areas was the one area in which the models agreed.
There was distinct variation in other parts of the world. Two of the models predicted that malaria would move northward, eventually spreading into Europe, Russia, and North America. Others showed that malaria would move north, but only as far as North Africa, where it was eliminated in the 20th century.
Credit: James Gathany
New research indicates that, toward the end of the century, climate change may make tropical highland regions suitable breeding grounds for malaria. And this could greatly increase the incidence of the disease.
Scientists compared the latest predictions for global warming with a range of statistical models commonly used to predict the spread of malaria.
And the models suggested that the changing climate will allow malaria to move into higher altitudes during warmer seasons and become permanently resident in larger areas.
This would mainly affect Africa but would also have an impact in Asia and South America.
In eastern Africa, the change could result in an additional 100 million people being exposed to malaria by the end of the 2080s, the researchers calculated.
However, they noted that the size of the impact is highly variable, as it can be affected by a number of factors.
“[W]e expect increased urbanization in these areas over the next 70 years,” said study author Cyril Caminade, PhD, of the University of Liverpool in the UK.
“Other developments, such as land use changes, population movements, and economic growth, will also have to be accounted for in future studies. What is clear is that diseases such as malaria are going to be moving, and this is a crucial element of how we prepare for the effects of climate change.”
The comparison of these models has not been carried out before, and by doing so, the researchers were able to find that malaria spreading to tropical highland areas was the one area in which the models agreed.
There was distinct variation in other parts of the world. Two of the models predicted that malaria would move northward, eventually spreading into Europe, Russia, and North America. Others showed that malaria would move north, but only as far as North Africa, where it was eliminated in the 20th century.